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After the pure electric vehicle, the fuel cell vehicle became popular again. Especially recently, the news of "ten thousand vehicles in ten cities" has spread, and the whole industry has focused on fuel cell vehicles.

With regard to the fuel cell vehicles that are on the rise, some people have raised the question: there is still a bottleneck in the development of electric vehicles. Does the heating up of fuel cell vehicles mean that the route of new energy vehicles is to "abandon electricity from hydrogen"?

"The development of pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles is not contradictory, and there is no question of who will replace whom." On March 4, Ouyang Minggao, member of the Standing Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference and CAS Member, said in an interview with China Automotive News. In the interview, he believed that fuel cell vehicles are expected to reach 1 million by 2030.

In recent years, fuel cells have developed rapidly and attracted much attention from the automotive industry. In this regard, Ouyang Minggao pointed out that fuel cell vehicles will enter a large-scale development stage in ten years, reaching 1 million vehicles by 2023.

The time node of 2030 is not an illusion. Ouyang Minggao said that the new generation hydrogen production technology has made breakthroughs in science. For example, the efficiency of direct hydrogen production from solar energy is very close to that of power generation from laboratory data. For another example, the new generation of liquefaction technology has also made scientific breakthroughs, so the new generation of hydrogen production technology can be promoted on a large scale ten years later, and fuel cell vehicles can also be developed on a large scale.

Ouyang Minggao said that the focus of fuel cell development in the automotive field is still commercial vehicles.

In the first quarter of 2018, China has achieved batch commercial operation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. According to the data, 1527 fuel cell vehicles were produced and sold in 2018. Among them, there are more than 1400 buses and more than 100 trucks. By the end of 2018, 12 hydrogenation infrastructures will be built nationwide.

At present, the state has given strong support to hydrogen fuel vehicles at the policy level. In the subsidy policy in 2018, the subsidy standard for fuel cell vehicles remains unchanged. Since 2018, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Wuhan, Chongqing and other places have introduced relevant local subsidy policies and proposed infrastructure construction arrangements such as hydrogen refueling stations. At the same time, with the fuel cell industry warming up and policy support, upstream and downstream related enterprises in the automotive industry have increased their investment in the field of fuel cells. In addition, the "ten cities and thousands of vehicles" are expected to be promoted, which will certainly promote the rapid development of the fuel cell industry.

Ten years ago, there were thousands of electric vehicles in ten cities, and ten years later, there may be thousands of fuel cell vehicles in ten cities. It can not help worrying that a series of problems caused by the vigorous construction of new energy vehicles, such as competing for resources, or even "cheating" will happen again in fuel cell vehicles?

"After all, it is better to learn from the previous experience. This is not a new problem, but an old one. We must still have experience," Ouyang Minggao said.

The development difficulty lies in hydrogen energy technology

Ouyang Minggao stressed that the development of fuel cells is about ten years later than that of power cells, and the development of hydrogen energy is later than that of fuel cells. Therefore, the most important thing at present is the all-round development of hydrogen energy technology, industry and policy.

"In fact, the challenges facing hydrogen energy are much greater than those facing fuel cells themselves." Ouyang Minggao said that hydrogen energy faces many problems in technology, policy and other aspects. For example, in terms of technology, vehicle fuel cell technology should gradually mature in about five years. However, the hydrogen energy technologies used today, such as hydrogen production technology, hydrogen storage technology and hydrogen transportation technology, are all processes many years ago. "For example, liquefied hydrogen has been used for decades or hundreds of years." These processes need to be updated because of their low energy efficiency and high cost. To develop hydrogen energy, we must first do a good job in technological reform and innovation. The new generation of hydrogen production technology has made breakthroughs in science, but how to realize industrial application is more important. Therefore, the biggest difficulty of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is the on-board hydrogen storage in hydrogen energy technology. The on-board hydrogen storage technology has not reached the ideal state, and the cost is still high, which needs to be solved by technological innovation.

When the hydrogen energy technology has not been completely replaced, the existing hydrogen energy technology should be applied. Where does the existing hydrogen energy come from?

"To put it bluntly, the discarded hydrogen is used as the main source. For example, by-product hydrogen, hydrogen produced by water and hydrogen produced by wind are the main sources of hydrogen energy in the future demonstration phase, and it is better to use these previously unused resources." Ouyang Minggao explained that the main reason for this is low cost. Although these hydrogen production technologies are not efficient at present, they are not so important since they are waste products. These technologies may also be used before fuel cell vehicles reach the scale of one million. It is estimated that after the number of fuel cell vehicles reaches one million in 2030, the new generation of hydrogen energy technology can also be engineered.

Two technical routes can be developed in parallel

Ouyang Minggao pointed out that the development of fuel cell vehicles is ten years later than that of electric vehicles. It is estimated that by 2030, there will be 80 million pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles with lithium batteries. According to the plan, there will be about 1 million fuel cell vehicles by 2030.

"The lithium-ion battery will gradually mature in three or five years, so can it be replaced immediately?" Ouyang Minggao said that China has been developing pure electric vehicles for ten years, and there are many experiences and policies that can be used for reference, which is also the advantage of developing fuel cell vehicles in China. "Our electric vehicles are developing very well. Fuel cell vehicles are also electric vehicles. Many things in the vehicle are the same, including batteries, motors and electronic controls. Fuel cell vehicles have an additional generator than pure electric vehicles."

As for the industry's analogy of Tesla coming as "wolf coming", Ouyang Minggao gave the view that "you don't have to be afraid of Tesla if you have core technology".

"Tesla's entry into China must be a good thing for the whole new energy vehicle industry." Ouyang Minggao pointed out that Tesla's entry into China will not only have a great impact on the power of new cars, but also on traditional cars, which will play a huge role in promoting the transformation of fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles.

Ouyang Minggao particularly stressed that Tesla's impact on the domestic new energy automobile industry lies in Tesla's products, not its core technologies. After clarifying this concept, the industry need not fear Tesla's arrival. In fact, China's battery technology is very good, and Tesla's core technology is available in our country. The automobile is a commercial product, but Tesla's enterprises can only be eliminated.

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