-Why does the lithium iron phosphate battery fly again when it once fell down the tuyere?

Why does the lithium iron phosphate battery fly again when it once fell down the tuyere?
author:enerbyte source:本站 click506 Release date: 2022-10-24 10:23:31
abstract:
For most industries, the past 2020 is undoubtedly a tough year, but for new energy vehicles, it is a lucky year.New domestic car making forces are coming. Since its landing in the U.S. stock market in June 2020, the stock price has risen by more than 1200%, and the market value has surpassed the tra...

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For most industries, the past 2020 is undoubtedly a tough year, but for new energy vehicles, it is a lucky year.

New domestic car making forces are coming. Since its landing in the U.S. stock market in June 2020, the stock price has risen by more than 1200%, and the market value has surpassed the traditional car companies such as Mercedes Benz and General Motors; It goes without saying that Tesla, which is on the cusp of the storm, has a market value of about $830 billion, more than that of General Motors, Toyota and Ford combined.

The rise of new energy vehicles naturally means that the demand for power batteries has increased significantly. In the past half year, lithium iron phosphate battery has become active again.

According to the data released by China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the cumulative sales volume of domestic power batteries in 2020 will be 65.9GWh; Among them, the total sales of ternary lithium batteries was 34.8GWh, down 34.4% year on year; The cumulative sales of lithium iron phosphate battery was 30.8GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 49.2%, becoming the only type of power battery with a year-on-year growth in sales.

At the same time, affected by the supply and demand relationship, since January 2021, the price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate has continued to rise, and the current quotation is generally between 62000-67000 yuan/ton.

Why does the lithium iron phosphate battery, which was not favored by the market in the past, become the "sweet spot" of the market again? Is it going to take off again?

Mainly power and energy storage batteries, popular models help take off

According to the data released by Xinlun Information, the statistical output of lithium iron phosphate material will be 97500 tons in 2019 and 142000 tons in 2020, with a year-on-year growth of 45.7%, much higher than that of other cathode materials.

Specifically, the output is mainly concentrated in German Nano and Hunan Yuneng; Among them, German Nano continued to lead the production of the whole year by virtue of its stable customer channels and production capacity advantages. The high-profile Guoxuan Hi Tech has expanded in the field of energy storage and bicycles, and the demand for self-produced lithium iron is steady, followed by the following.

In the past, lithium iron phosphate was mainly concentrated in the power field, but its development began to stagnate due to the restriction of subsidy standards. With the advantage of cost performance, lithium iron phosphate is favored in non power fields such as energy storage.

However, the main battlefield of lithium iron phosphate battery is still in the field of power battery. In 2020, the power battery market will account for nearly half of the consumption of lithium iron phosphate materials, the energy storage market will account for less than 30%, and the maintenance, after-sales and bicycle fields will account for 7% and 4% respectively.

Lithium iron phosphate battery has gained momentum again recently, largely due to its breakthrough in the power battery market. Lithium iron phosphate batteries will be used in many popular models in 2020, including the Ningde era lithium iron phosphate battery carried by Tesla Model 3, the lithium iron phosphate blade battery carried by BYD Han, and most models of Wuling Hongguang MINI also carry lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Technological breakthrough and subsidy decline may be expected in the future

Most people are familiar with lithium iron phosphate batteries. Due to its long service life, high safety, good high temperature performance, large capacity, environmental protection and other advantages, it has been widely concerned by the industry. At the beginning of the domestic new energy vehicle market, most electric vehicles use lithium iron phosphate batteries, such as Roewe e550 and BYD Qin.

However, with the subsidy policy linked to the battery energy density, the user's demand for pure electric range increased, and the technological development of ternary lithium batteries, ternary lithium batteries with higher energy density and capacity began to be favored by the market.

At the same time, some disadvantages of lithium iron phosphate battery are magnified infinitely.

For example, the vibro compaction density and compaction density of lithium iron phosphate battery are very low, resulting in low energy density of lithium ion battery; In terms of low temperature resistance, the lower limit for low temperature use of ordinary ternary lithium batteries is minus 30 ℃, and the lower limit for low temperature use of lithium iron phosphate batteries is minus 20 ℃. The latter has a more obvious power decline in winter. This is also the key that BYD sold well in the south before, but it is difficult to open the northern market.

Now, lithium iron phosphate battery has regained market favor, largely due to the following two reasons:

First, breakthroughs have been made in technology. After BYD released the blade battery, on January 8, 2021, Guoxuan Hi Tech made its debut in a new lithium iron phosphate battery product. By virtue of "high gram capacity silicon anode material and advanced pre lithium technology", the energy density was increased to 210Wh/kg.

In the next few days, Weilai Automobile released 150kWh solid state battery products (later explained and admitted that they are actually semi-solid state batteries), and the battery energy density may reach 360Wh/kg; Zhialready Automobile released its first new car and announced that it could realize the energy density of 300Wh/kg of single battery by adopting the cutting-edge battery technology jointly developed with Ningde Times. Both of them adopted the technology of "silicon anode material+pre lithiation".

From the time line, in less than a month in 2021, Guoxuan Hi Tech, Ningde Times, Weilai, Zhialready Automobile and GAC Group have expressed their confidence in silicon anode materials and pre lithiation technology, which indicates that lithium iron phosphate battery supported by the new technology of "silicon carbon anode and pre lithiation" is expected to start large-scale industrial promotion and application this year.

Second, the subsidy policy was gradually declining, and new energy vehicle manufacturers urgently needed to reduce the cost of car building, so they turned their attention to lithium iron phosphate batteries.

In April 2020, the new energy subsidy policy was issued, which not only stipulated that the selling price must be within 300000 yuan before subsidies, but also specified the intensity and pace of gradual subsidy decline in the next two years. On the last day of 2020, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a notice that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2021 will be 20% lower than that in 2020. At the same time, the current technical indicator system framework and threshold requirements for purchase subsidies will remain unchanged in 2021.

Lithium iron phosphate battery has greater advantages than ternary lithium battery. Previously, the person in charge of the battery system manufacturer said that the lowest tax free price of lithium iron phosphate battery cell was about 0.4 yuan/Wh, the pack price was within 0.6 yuan/Wh, and the price difference between different enterprises was 0.1-0.15 yuan/Wh or more; The pack price of the ternary NCM523 is about 0.75-0.9 yuan/Wh.

Not perfect, both will meet differentiation needs

Nothing can be perfect. Although there has been a breakthrough in energy density and cost advantages, lithium iron phosphate battery is still a major disadvantage compared with ternary lithium battery due to its low recycling value after battery retirement.

In China, after the power battery is retired, if the remaining capacity is still high, it will be used in echelon; If the battery capacity is extremely low, it will be disassembled for recycling. Compared with lithium iron phosphate batteries, ternary lithium batteries contain higher contents of metal nickel, cobalt and manganese, and have higher recycling value. Recycling enterprises are easy to obtain higher profits. Therefore, the commercial profit model of recycling waste ternary lithium batteries is basically mature.

In contrast, the economy of lithium iron phosphate battery recycling is low. At present, the cascade recycling price of ternary lithium batteries is 0.2-0.3 yuan/Wh, the residual value of scrapped ternary lithium batteries is about 0.1 yuan/Wh, and lithium iron phosphate batteries are almost worthless.

At present, despite the inherent advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery in terms of circularity and safety, the ternary lithium battery still has its own unique features. The two cannot coexist, but perform their respective duties - lithium iron phosphate battery will be more used in electric commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles below Class A and A0, and these consumers are more sensitive to price and pursue cost performance; The ternary lithium battery will be more used in the performance oriented medium and high-end passenger cars.

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