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Cobalt is a silver white ferromagnetic metal. As one of the cathode materials of ternary lithium battery, it has become a strategic rare metal resource due to its scarcity, and its price is also rising. According to statistics, its price has quadrupled in recent two years, which is just the beginning. It is predicted that global demand will increase 47 times in 2030, and the price will continue to increase.

62% of the global cobalt supply comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which is a war ravaged land. Child labor is very common, and cobalt is also a by-product of mining. The supply and demand relationship is very complex. This situation will certainly lead to a shortage of cobalt in the future, and it is inevitable.

As the production of Tesla Model3 increases and traditional automobile manufacturers such as BMW and Volkswagen compete to ensure battery supply, there is no doubt that electric vehicles will drive the demand for cobalt in the future.

As one of the cathode materials of ternary lithium batteries, cobalt shortage in the future is undoubtedly a bad news for the automotive industry, especially for the leading enterprises in the field of pure electric vehicles and batteries. This situation must be changed before the cobalt crisis.

Tesla uses NCA batteries, which means they use about 80% nickel, 15% cobalt and 5% aluminum. Toyota uses NMC batteries, with roughly equal proportions of nickel and magnesium cobalt. Therefore, compared with other electric vehicle manufacturers, the cobalt content of Tesla's battery is relatively small.

According to Tesla, since the beginning of Roadster production in 2009, the use of cobalt has decreased by 60%. In 2012, Tesla used an average of 11 kg of cobalt per vehicle, which has been reduced to 4.5 kg in 2018. The reduction of cobalt content is very helpful to reduce the cost of batteries.

Take the Tesla model equipped with a 60 degree battery as an example. Its cobalt content is only a few kilograms, and the value is about 357 dollars. Other electric vehicle manufacturers' cost of batteries is several times that of Tesla, reaching 2518 dollars. The official did not disclose the specific comparison model.

Panasonic, the battery partner of Tesla, said that it would continue to halve the cobalt content in the battery within two to three years. At present, such a battery has been realized, and its cobalt usage is less than 10% of the cathode weight (lower than the NMC811 battery launched by competitors). In fact, no matter what the proportion of cobalt in the battery is, the ultimate goal is to keep the battery performance while getting rid of the most expensive materials.

A professional in the industry said that it is very difficult to reduce the content of cobalt in the battery. Cobalt provides a long life and safety for the battery. With the reduction of the amount of cobalt used, the battery life cycle will be shortened and the tendency of the battery to overheat will increase, eventually leading to combustion. At this stage, most low cobalt or cobalt free alternatives are still in the laboratory stage and will not be produced in large scale soon. Although Tesla has a leading position in battery development in Panasonic, the cobalt element will not disappear overnight in its models, and it will take at least 10 years for a large model with low cobalt batteries to be used.

We can reduce the amount of cobalt in the battery cell, but with the increase of the total battery capacity of pure electric vehicles and the huge market of electric vehicles, the overall demand for cobalt will still increase. At the beginning of the article, we have said that 62% of the world's cobalt supply comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which is likely to become a mineral for everyone to compete for in the future. At this stage, battery manufacturers are seeking to obtain minerals outside the Congo. In addition to ensuring their own supply chain in the future, they can also reduce the risks faced by the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

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