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Against the backdrop of subsidy recession, Wang Yong had predicted to a reporter from Caijing at the beginning of the year that the price of lithium iron phosphate batteries would decrease by about 20% -30% this year. Research data from Industrial Securities also shows that in 2017, the price of iron lithium batteries decreased by about 20% compared to the end of last year, and the price of ternary batteries is expected to decrease by 10% -15%.

Wang Yong analyzed that technological progress and scale advantages will lead to a decrease in costs, but the prices of raw materials such as lithium carbonate, copper foil, and lithium salts will rise, and battery companies will use more new materials for the PACK process to reduce the weight of battery boxes in order to achieve higher subsidy coefficients. Under multiple factors, the cost of batteries in 2017 is expected to remain the same as in 2016, while the previous year has maintained a 10% -15% decline space.

Taking into account the impact of upstream and downstream factors, Wang Yong predicts that the gross profit margin of lithium iron phosphate power batteries will decrease by about 10% this year. In the past few years, Guoxuan High tech has mainly produced lithium iron phosphate, and its gross profit margin has remained stable at over 40% for a long time.

The cost pressure of ternary batteries is even greater. A senior analyst in the battery industry told Caijing that in recent years, the upstream lithium and cobalt prices have doubled or tripled, mining takes time, the upstream supply side has not been opened, and the battery industry is still resource-based.

The battery usage of a passenger car is only about one tenth of that of a passenger car, and for battery companies, the cost of lithium iron phosphate per watt hour is lower. In addition, 2017 will be the first year for the widespread application of ternary batteries in passenger cars, and they have just begun to be widely used. Their scale advantages have not yet been reflected. Wang Yong believes that overall, its gross profit margin is expected to be between 20% and 30%, significantly lower than the level of lithium iron phosphate.

A power lithium battery report from Industrial Securities predicts that the gross profit margin of lithium iron phosphate power batteries will be affected by a range of 7-10%, and ternary power lithium batteries will be affected by a range of 4-7%.

A senior industry insider analyzed to a reporter from Caijing that battery companies will face dual pressure from the market and costs this year, and from an investment perspective, it is not the preferred choice for industry chain investment. Compared to other fields, lithium carbonate materials, high-end ternary cathode materials, high-end electrolytes, and battery equipment are better investment choices.

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