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Data source: True Lithium Research. August 20th, 2016.

In 2015, nearly half of the production and sales of new energy vehicles were achieved in November and December, which is referred to as "rush to install" in the capital market. With the deepening of the fraud compensation incident and the successive issuance of handling decisions, it is expected that there will be a "rush to install" market this year and it is also unlikely to occur in the future. In this way, there may not be a significant increase in the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China this year. Zhenli Research predicts that the annual production of new energy vehicles will reach 465000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.06%; Among them, the number of pure electric passenger cars will reach 240000, a year-on-year increase of 74.39%; Due to the significant decline in the production and sales of 6-8 meter pure electric buses, this year's pure electric bus production is expected to only be around 80000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.45%; The decline in production and sales of pure electric specialized vehicles will be more severe, and it is expected that 30000 vehicles this year will be considered good.

Correspondingly, it is expected that the demand for lithium-ion batteries for automotive power will reach 19.66 million kWh in 2016, with a year-on-year increase of only 22.58%, which is less than the overall growth rate of vehicles. This is mainly due to the contraction of the passenger car market with large battery usage. Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a suspension of the use of ternary batteries for pure electric buses at the beginning of the year, it only affected the development speed of ternary batteries. The expected demand for ternary/manganese based power lithium batteries for the entire year is 6.857 million kWh, an increase of 67.01% year-on-year; The demand for lithium iron phosphate power batteries is 12.86 million kWh, only a slight increase compared to last year's 11.935 million kWh. True lithium research believes that the development of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the new energy vehicle market has basically reached its peak.

At the beginning of the year, many institutions, including the China Automobile Association, were optimistic that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China would reach 700000 units this year, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also said the same. The optimistic mood also affected the company's judgment, with the vast majority of companies investing funds at the beginning of the year and actively "expanding their troops and preparing for war". Now, the more optimistic the attitude was, the greater the trouble they are facing now. Research on Zhenli has always believed that when the development of a market is completely dominated by policies, one should be cautious and not too optimistic, because policies are uncontrollable factors and have a huge impact. At the same time, you cannot accurately judge its trend.

(Supplement: The prediction of the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China by True Lithium Research in 2016 has undergone a continuous adjustment process. At the beginning of the year, it is expected to have 558000 vehicles, lower than all institutions' predictions. In August, it was adjusted to 465000 vehicles. In early September, it was further adjusted to 454000 vehicles. It is important to further reduce the pure electric passenger cars from 80000 to 72500 vehicles, and the plug-in hybrid passenger cars from 15000 to 11500 vehicles.)

Original Title: Current Development Status and Forecast of Automotive Power Lithium Batteries in China (II)

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