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Since 2017, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate has soared from 124500 yuan/ton to 171000 yuan/ton, and reached a turning point in November 2017, after which the price of battery grade lithium carbonate began to decline. In addition, after the Spring Festival in 2018, the high platform diving was ordinary, and the decline accelerated. Today, it has dropped below 100000 yuan/ton, reaching the lowest level of 97500 yuan/ton in nearly three years.

What caused the roller coaster of lithium carbonate prices in the past two years? Can the price of lithium carbonate rebound? SMM summarized the basic situation in the past two years and summarized it as follows.

The price change of lithium carbonate is actually a direct reflection of the supply and demand of lithium carbonate. At the end of the third quarter in 2018, the terminal car enterprises will start to make impulse. Can the price of lithium carbonate rebound?

SMM thinks the possibility of rebound is low. The core logic is that when there is no supply gap for lithium raw materials, the industry form in the smelting link will have an important impact on the price of lithium salt. However, in the process of lithium smelting industry from monopoly to differentiation and back to monopoly, lithium salt plants are not able to support prices, and the possibility of joint production reduction and price protection is low

Before the outbreak of ternary material demand, the supply of lithium ore lithium smelting cathode materials in the first two sections of the industrial chain was relatively centralized, the number of cathode materials was large, and the demand was relatively dispersed. The industrial pattern was favorable for smelters to master lithium resources. The new entrants to the smelter are in an awkward situation: the ore must be bought from the old smelters, and the products must be snatched from the old smelters, so it is difficult to develop new ones. However, the prosperity of the new energy automobile industry has incubated a large number of demand manufacturers, and the number of positive material manufacturers has increased dramatically. In addition, a large amount of investment funds have been invested in the development of new lithium mines, bringing opportunities to new smelters. The pattern of large at both ends and small in the middle has divided the monopoly capacity of lithium smelters. SMM observed that, compared with the national investment in lithium mines in and out of the industry last year, one of the major investment characteristics in 2018 was that the scope of lithium resource investment subjects was further narrowed to the leading old smelters. It is not difficult to understand the motivation behind this phenomenon: battery plants and cathode material plants will undergo industry reshuffle in the next three years due to declining subsidies. Industry concentration will be further improved, and the corresponding bargaining power of cathode material manufacturers will also be improved. In order to maintain a favorable market position and ensure long-term operational advantages, leading smelters must consolidate their resource advantages to compete with new entrants in terms of costs and customers.

There is no supply gap for lithium raw materials. In the first quarter of 2018, China's original lithium raw material inventory increase was about 16000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, and in 2017, the accumulated ore inventory of 60000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, a total of 76000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent.

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