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In the recently published Nature magazine, an article entitled "Ten years before the lithium electronic battery revolution" pointed out that the evolution speed of lithium ion battery performance and price is slowing down.

If the research on electrode materials based on abundant iron, copper and other materials is not increased, the large-scale development of electric vehicles will be limited!

The article believes that the main reasons for the above problems include the following:

First, because the technology has reached the acme and has not yet broken through.

In the crystal structure of electrode materials, the amount of charge that can be stored is close to the theoretical maximum; It is difficult for the growth of market scale to continue to bring about substantial price reduction.

Second, the existing resources are beginning to be short, while alternative materials have not yet emerged.

At present, commonly used electrode materials, such as cobalt and nickel, are very scarce and expensive. If there is no new change, it is expected that the demand for cobalt and nickel will exceed the output in 2030~2037 (or earlier). On the other hand, new alternative electrode materials, such as iron and copper with abundant reserves, are still in the early stage of research.

Since its first appearance in 1990, lithium-ion batteries have been widely used in consumer electronics, energy storage (household, public utilities), and electric vehicles. With the expansion of production capacity, its performance has been greatly improved and its price has dropped significantly.

Among the four key factors driving the cost reduction and performance improvement of lithium ion batteries, chemical materials are the most important.

The performance of the battery is affected by the bipolar chemical materials. Cathode materials mainly include lithium nickel manganese cobalt (NMC), lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA), lithium manganese oxide (LMO) and lithium iron phosphate (LFP); Most anode materials are graphite, and lithium titanate (LTO) will also be used in heavy vehicles to increase cycle life.

The main advantage of NMC and NCA technology is higher energy density, which dominates the light battery market;

LFP has low energy density, but thanks to its higher cycle life and safety performance, it has become the main chemical used in heavy electric vehicles (i.e. buses).

Chemical materials have a great impact on the battery cost. LFP-Gr is the most expensive, about 240 dollars/kWh, about 20% higher than the cheapest NMC811-Gr battery.

According to the analysis of IEA, although lithium ion batteries can dominate in the next 20 years, their chemical materials will gradually change.

Around 2025, a new generation of lithium-ion batteries with low cobalt, high energy density and cathode lithium nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) 811 will enter mass production. Adding a small amount of silicon to the graphite anode can increase the energy density by 50%, and the electrolyte salt that can withstand higher voltage will also help to improve the performance.

From 2025 to 2030, lithium ion batteries with lithium metal as cathode and graphite/silicon composite as anode may enter the design stage, and even solid electrolyte can be introduced to further improve energy density and battery safety. In addition, lithium ion technology may be replaced by lithium air, lithium sulfur and other batteries with higher energy density and lower theoretical cost. But in fact, the development level of these technologies is still very low, and the actual performance remains to be tested.

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