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Lithium batteries can be divided into three categories according to the difference of battery packaging forms: cylindrical, square and soft package. As the soft package form can improve the capacity density of power batteries on the existing technology level, and save more weight and volume, the demand for soft package lithium batteries continues to grow with the help of the lightweight battery of consumer electronics products and the demand for high energy density of new energy vehicle power lithium batteries.

However, due to its high technical barriers, the market of aluminum plastic film, the key material of flexible lithium battery, has been monopolized by Japanese and Korean enterprises for a long time; With the development of China's new energy automobile industry, driven by the high growth of power lithium batteries, and the continuous layout of domestic enterprises, the aluminum plastic film market will accelerate import substitution, and demand penetration will further expand.

New energy vehicles stand out alone

In 2018, the growth rate of China's overall automobile sales declined significantly. According to the data of the China Automobile Association, the year-on-year growth rate of automobile sales in the current month has been negative for four consecutive months and has become an expanding trend. Since July, the growth rate has changed to -4.17%, and then to -3.78%, -11.63% and -11.97% from August to October.

Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars is more serious. Its year-on-year growth rate has been negative for four times in 2017, and its decline trend is more rapid than that of cars as a whole. Since July, the growth rate has changed from 2.31% in June to -5.30%, and from August to October, it has been -4.55%, -12.04% and -12.98% respectively.

Compared with the decline of the overall vehicle sales growth, new energy vehicles are a new force. The year-on-year sales growth rate is currently basically maintained at about 50%, and the growth rate in March May this year has exceeded 100% continuously.

The flexible lithium battery continues to grow

According to the Medium and Long term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry, the specific energy of the single power battery will reach 300wh/kg in 2020, striving to achieve 350wh/kg, and the specific energy of the system will strive to reach 260wh/kg. At present, the specific energy of commercial power battery is generally 160-180wh/kg, and the specific energy of system is 90-130wh/kg, which is far from the policy requirements.

Because of the advantages of high energy density and good cycle life, flexible lithium batteries are widely used in consumer electronics, new energy vehicles and energy storage fields. Among them, the penetration rate in the field of consumer electronics is close to 70%, while in the field of power batteries, it is less than 15%, with huge room for improvement.

It is estimated that by 2020, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach about 2 million, and the demand for power batteries is expected to reach 94.5 GWh. Due to the high growth of the production and sales of new energy vehicles, and under the policy of China's new energy vehicle subsidy program, the demand for high energy density will boost the development of flexible lithium batteries.

Aluminum plastic film is widely used

As the key material of soft coated lithium battery, aluminum plastic film is a composite material composed of outer nylon layer, middle aluminum foil layer and inner heat seal layer. It has the characteristics of light weight, thin thickness and flexible shape design. It plays a key role in the lightweight of battery. It has obvious advantages over traditional aluminum shell, steel shell and other materials in terms of safety, specific capacity, internal resistance, etc. At present, aluminum plastic film flexible battery has been widely used in consumer electronics products and is being widely used in electric vehicles.

Accelerate import substitution of aluminum plastic film

Due to the strict requirements on barrier, cold stamping, puncture resistance, chemical stability and insulation, the production of aluminum plastic film has a high technical barrier, which is far more difficult than positive pole, negative pole, diaphragm and electrolyte. Due to the lack of production technology, the aluminum plastic film products produced in China have a large gap with foreign countries in terms of strong corrosion resistance, electrolyte resistance and other aspects, and cannot meet the demand for high-end products, resulting in domestic imports accounting for about 90% of the total consumption. The mainstream technology is the Japanese printing thermal method and the Showa Electric dry method. The market is mainly occupied by Japanese manufacturers.

However, in the cost composition of soft packed lithium batteries, the cost of aluminum plastic film accounts for 18%, which is only 30% lower than that of cathode materials. Driven by high gross profit rate and high profitability and growth space, domestic enterprises began to continue to layout and accelerate the localization process.

With the advantage of cost performance, the price difference of aluminum plastic film at home and abroad is basically 20% - 30%. With the progress in materials, processes and equipment, domestic enterprises have improved their products and quality, basically occupying the low-end consumer electronics battery market, and gradually entering the high-end consumer electronics market.

In terms of power batteries, under the trend of high energy density and declining subsidies, the growth trend of flexible lithium batteries is obvious. Affected by cost pressure and demand growth, domestic enterprises are closer to manufacturers and users, and after-sales services are more perfect. Domestic aluminum plastic films are expected to accelerate import substitution.

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