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In 2023, China's production of ternary materials was 620000 tons, a decrease of 5% compared to the same period last year, and the capacity utilization rate was around 40%. Looking back at the annual production changes in 2023, the two main reasons are "destocking of the industrial chain" and "terminal share being squeezed by iron lithium materials".

From a quarterly perspective, in the first quarter of 2023, after the decline of national subsidies, the overall inventory of the industrial chain was high, and the recovery speed of domestic power terminal demand was slow. Raw material prices rapidly declined, and downstream prioritized inventory digestion. Both domestic and foreign orders decreased, and the operating rate of ternary material enterprises declined.

In the second quarter, on the one hand, policies frequently promoted consumption, resulting in a substantial increase in terminal demand. On the other hand, lithium prices rebounded after bottoming out, and downstream inventories were digested, leading to an improvement in market sentiment. There was a mid year rush behavior of early stocking, and the overall operating rate of ternary material enterprises increased.

In the third and fourth quarters, the price of lithium raw materials once again entered a downward range, and the control of inventory in the new energy industry chain has become stricter. Therefore, even against the backdrop of continuous increase in terminal vehicle sales and battery production, downstream inventory continues to be depleted, and the increase in demand for ternary materials has not met expectations. In 2023, the "golden nine silver ten" trend of previous years has not been repeated.

In the fourth quarter, the year-end was driven by some popular car models, such as the Wenjie, Ideal, and SAIC Volkswagen series, all equipped with ternary batteries. Although the production of ternary materials is declining, it is still better than in the first and second quarters.

In 2023, the proportion of ternary materials is 30% for 5-series, 23% for 6-series, and 46% for high nickel and ultra-high nickel. The proportion of the 5 series has further decreased compared to 2022. On the one hand, the low-end digital market is a stock market, and on the other hand, there is a phenomenon of switching from the 5 series to the 6 series in the power end, pursuing further improvement in energy density. The proportion of the 6 series has further increased, mainly due to the advantages of the high voltage route of medium nickel in terms of safety and cost, and the energy density can also meet the endurance needs of downstream car companies. In addition, on the high nickel route, the proportion of high nickel has slightly increased.

2、 Competitive landscape in 2023

From the perspective of industry concentration, the market share of the top ten in the ternary materials industry remains stable, with CR10 at 79% in 2022 and 80% in 2023, a slight increase of 1%. However, in the first three years of 2023, the market share of the three companies has further increased, with a 3% increase in market share.

When it comes to specific positive electrode enterprises, Rongbai is still undoubtedly a high nickel ternary leading enterprise, with Bamo and Dangsheng ranking second and third. Nantong Ruixiang and Changyuan Lithium follow closely behind.

From the perspective of battery manufacturers, among the top ten ternary material enterprises, 7 suppliers from Ningde Times System were shortlisted, and all suppliers from low, medium, and high nickel materials were shortlisted. Two suppliers under the overseas SK on system have been shortlisted.

Looking ahead to 2024, 1) Optimistically expect China's ternary material production growth rate to be about 10% in 2024; 2) It is expected that there will still be a relatively optimistic increase in the proportion of nickel materials in 2024, and the growth rate of high nickel materials will be limited in 2024; 3) In the medium to long term, there is still some upward space for high nickel permeability, and the trend of 9 series iteration and 8 series is still ongoing. 4) In terms of corporate structure, some of the main nickel material enterprises are benefiting from the clear expected increase in the proportion of downstream battery factories, and there may be some adjustments to the structure of the top five ternary material enterprises in 2024.

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