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Recently, Tesla signed a Strategic Cooperation Agreement with Ganfeng Lithium and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Ganfeng International. It is agreed that from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2020, Tesla will designate its battery suppliers to purchase battery grade lithium hydroxide products from Ganfeng Lithium and Ganfeng International. The annual purchase amount is about 20% of the total production capacity of Ganfeng that year, and the amount is subject to the final actual settlement.

The huge demand of Tesla Super Factory

We know that suppliers of electric vehicles and battery enterprises usually need to ensure lithium supply for future batteries. Lithium hydroxide is the essential key material for making high nickel 811/NCA battery. From a global perspective, Tesla alone has a huge demand for lithium hydroxide.

With the mass production of Model3, Tesla Super Factory has become an important demand driver for lithium hydroxide. In 2020, Tesla will consume about 24000 tons of battery grade lithium hydroxide every year to achieve the goal of annual production capacity of 500000 vehicles and 35GWh of super battery factory.

Since its inception, the production capacity of Tesla Model 3 has been criticized by many motorists. In fact, we all know that Tesla vehicles are car bodies assembled with various accessories, and Tesla has mastered the core battery and system technology. The production capacity of electric vehicles is mainly determined by the output of batteries. In August 2017, Kotkell, the technical director of Tesla primary battery, resigned because he could not solve the problem of battery production.

Data shows that at present, the global order of Model3 is estimated to reach 450000 vehicles, becoming the world's best-selling new energy vehicle. However, the current capacity of Model3 is seriously lagging behind, with a weekly capacity of only 3500 vehicles, and its production speed is far from the delivery commitment. Tesla purchased a large amount of lithium hydroxide this time, which will greatly increase the capacity of NCA batteries and help improve the capacity of Model3.

LG Chem uses "milk power"

In addition to Tesla, LG Chemical is also vigorously snapping up lithium hydroxide. Ganfeng Lithium has previously announced that the company signed a Supplementary Contract to the Supply Contract with LG Chemical, agreeing that from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2025, the company and Ganfeng International will increase the sales of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate products to LG Chemical, totaling 45000 tons. After signing the supplementary contract, from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2025, the Company and Ganfeng International sold a total of 92600 tons of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate products to LG Chemical.

In order to ensure the sufficient supply of upstream raw materials at low cost, LG Chem can be said to have "milk power". Foreign media reported that in July this year, LG Chem signed a supply agreement with NemaskaLithium, a mining enterprise in Quebec Province, Canada. Nemaska's commercial factory in Shawinigan, north of Montreal, will supply 7000 tons of lithium hydroxide to LG Chem every year. The initial period is five years from October 2020, with a total of 35000 tons of lithium hydroxide.

Battery China noted that as early as November 2017, Pilbara Minerals, an Australian lithium mining company, announced that it would jointly build a lithium processing plant in South Korea with LG Chemical. According to the agreement, the proposed processing plant will invest 309 million US dollars, with an annual capacity of 30000 tons of lithium hydroxide. It is planned to be put into operation in January 2020, and will supply products for the Korean battery industry.

Industry insiders believe that the reason why LG Chemical can't wait to lock in the supply of lithium hydroxide raw materials of more than 100000 tons in the next seven years should be to match its rapid expansion in the global capacity construction pace. At present, LG Chemical's high nickel 811 battery is being actively promoted, and the manufacture of high nickel 811 battery cannot be separated from lithium hydroxide.

Global high nickel 811/NCA layout accelerated

Battery China.com learned that since the second half of 2017, the layout of domestic power battery enterprises in high nickel 811/NCA has been significantly accelerated. Many power battery manufacturers, including Bike Power, Lishen Battery, GP Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy and Far East Foster, said that they had basically completed the process from product technology breakthrough, small batch production, and customer sample delivery certification test. Some enterprises even realized mass production.

It is reported that Guoxuan High Tech has developed NCM811 soft package cell with energy density of 302Wh/kg, and plans to start construction of production line in 2019; Tianjin Lishen NCM811 battery related models have successfully entered the recommended directory; In 2017, BIK Power successfully mass produced NCM811 batteries and gradually introduced new energy passenger vehicle enterprises; Ningde Times expects to launch high nickel 811 battery in 2019; BYD also said that it is expected to start using ternary high nickel 811 batteries in the second half of 2019.

Compared with China, in addition to LG Chem, Panasonic, SKI and Samsung SDI have been actively preparing for high nickel 811/NCA batteries. The 21700 cylindrical NCA battery applied by Panasonic on Tesla Model 3 has improved the energy density of the battery by 20% by improving the application of high nickel positive electrode materials and silicon carbon negative electrode materials; SKI announced in 2017 that it would start mass production of NCM811 batteries and provide batteries for electric vehicles in the third quarter of 2018; The main strategic partner of Samsung SDI is BMW. According to BMW's plan, NCM811 will be used in 2022.

The demand for lithium hydroxide explodes

With the increasing demand for high nickel batteries, the demand for lithium hydroxide has increased significantly. Industry insiders believe that the high nickel ternary battery using battery grade lithium hydroxide as raw material will gradually become the mainstream of market demand in 2019. Generally speaking, 787.5 tons of lithium hydroxide are required for each 1GWh high nickel ternary battery. According to the forecast, the global demand for battery grade lithium hydroxide in 2018 may usher in explosive growth, which is expected to reach 47000 tons. It is estimated that the compound growth rate of global battery demand for lithium hydroxide will reach 78% from 2018 to 2020.

High nickel battery is a major trend of future development. From a global perspective, there are many enterprises in the whole industry that have mass produced. With 811/NCA high nickel positive electrode, the cost of battery plant will be reduced by 6-8%, the gross profit rate of positive electrode material will be doubled, and the vehicle range will be increased. Industry insiders said that 2018 should be the first year of mass production of 811/NCA high nickel batteries.

Battery China believes that the demand for 811/NCA high nickel cathode materials will explode in the next few years, and lithium hydroxide may be in short supply. Tesla and LG Chemical can be said to be prepared for this large-scale purchase of lithium hydroxide, and the competition for lithium hydroxide among global enterprises will become increasingly fierce in the future.

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