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Some people say that the battery has reached the bottleneck, and the frequent spontaneous combustion of electric vehicles proves that the next step should be to popularize the charging pile in a wider range. However, some people say that the battery technology is about to break through, and the future use scenario of electric vehicles is no different from that of fuel vehicles.

In the electric era of automobiles, safe and high-capacity batteries are an unavoidable obstacle and the core of whether electric vehicles can really replace fuel vehicles. When battery technology reaches the ceiling, it may also mean that the singularity moment of new technology is no longer far away.

In recent days, there has been constant news in the field of power lithium batteries.

These voices affect both consumers and capital markets.

On May 13, GAC New Energy under GAC Group announced that at the end of this year, the research and development of mass production of graphene batteries will finally move from the laboratory to real vehicles, and GAC New Energy Ai'an models will carry relevant technical achievements.

The super fast charging battery developed based on the three-dimensional graphene (3DG) material of GAC has completed the test of the sample of the battery cell, module and battery pack, and carried out the high-power charging test on the vehicle. The battery life and safety have reached the use standard.

According to the test, the super fast charging battery can charge the battery to 85% in only 8 minutes, and the charging time is equivalent to that of traditional fuel vehicles.

On May 11, CATL held an online presentation of 2019 annual performance. He said at the briefing that the development of cobalt free battery technology was smooth, which means that the battery cost will be further reduced.

On April 16, a new patent issued by TSLA (Tesla) showed that its battery with a life of 1 million miles has been further developed.

This patent describes a new battery lithification process, which can improve battery quality, extend battery life, and even save costs. The name of this patent is Method for Synthesizing Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Electrodes.

On March 29, BYD officially launched the blade battery. At the announcement meeting, it demonstrated the most feared needle test of the battery, and declared that the blade battery has the characteristics of high safety, long endurance, long life, etc., which will pull the development path of power lithium battery back to the right path based on safety.

Four new energy companies announced three new battery technologies with completely different routes around the first half of this year, and the problems to be solved by the new technologies also illustrate the current predicament of new energy

Slow charging,

Short life,

unsafe,

High cost.

The battery technology promoted by GAC Xinyuan, TSLA, BYD and CATL perfectly solves the above four defects.

Is the Singularity Moment of Power Lithium Battery Really Coming?

The commercial prospect of graphene remains unclear

In 2010, the discoverer of graphene won the Nobel Prize in Physics.

From then on, graphene became an outstanding subject.

In 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China formulated the 13th Five Year Plan for Scientific and Technological Innovation in Materials, which classified graphene material technology as a key development area.

It is undeniable that the term graphene is appearing more and more frequently in our lives. Because of its ultra light, ultra high strength, ultra strong conductivity and other characteristics, it is considered to be an important technology to improve the battery charging speed and promote the technical progress of power lithium batteries.

In recent years, more and more companies have joined the R&D and manufacturing camp of graphene batteries, but they have always only heard the sound of graphene batteries, not the substance.

And the more desirable the product is, the easier it is to be speculated as the technology of graphene. Strictly speaking, the consumer goods we can buy today are still 0 for the application of graphene.

In 2014, Elon Musk, founder and CEO of Tesla, said that TSLA was ready to upgrade the performance of ModelS, the upcoming ModelX crossover vehicle and the affordable electric vehicle Model3. The range of our car will probably exceed 500 miles. At that time, he said so in an interview with AutoExpress, a British auto weekly magazine.

However, Musk did not disclose the details of this plan, but according to many media reports, the super battery made of graphene may be the key to TSLA's implementation of this plan. If we carefully search for several foreign related reports, we will all say that the source of the news is our own media.

The recent hype also included that Huawei's P40 will be equipped with graphene batteries, but it has not been realized so far.

In fact, the international academic and industrial circles of lithium battery have no reference to graphene battery. There is no explanation of the two terms graphene battery or graphene Li on battery in Wikipedia.

At present, almost all commercial lithium batteries use graphite anode materials. When the performance of the cathode is similar, the performance of lithium batteries largely depends on the cathode materials. Therefore, lithium batteries have the habit of being called by the anode, such as lithium iron phosphate batteries, lithium cobalate batteries, lithium manganate batteries, ternary batteries, etc.

Therefore, the application of graphene in batteries may be either positive or negative. Since the cost of graphene is thousands of times that of previous materials, no manufacturer will replace all materials of one electrode with graphene, so there is basically no graphene battery, only lithium battery/lead-acid battery doped with/using graphene.

As GAC New Energy has not released technical details, it is still a mystery whether graphene will appear as a main material or as an additive in the super fast charging battery that will be carried by GAC New Energy's E'an model.

At present, only Samsung has announced the development of graphene battery as a well-known case in the business, but some comments pointed out that Samsung's methods and raw materials determined that this method could not be an industrialized one.

In addition, the biggest problem of graphene is its cost and process. In addition, there are still differences in volume and difficulty between mobile phone batteries and automotive power lithium batteries. At present, there is no mature solution in academia.

Therefore, the super fast charging battery of GAC New Energy is doubtless. The manufacturer takes out a test car or mobile phone to claim that it is not difficult to charge at an extremely fast speed. The real difficulty of graphene is cost and reliable commercial technology breakthrough.

However, according to the existing conditions, the industrialization prospect of graphene is still slim.

Fast charging and safety are a pair of contradictions. A company that has solved this problem can become a key player in today's automotive industry simply by focusing on the battery itself instead of producing cars.

We do not reject imagination, but cruel truth is more meaningful than false gimmicks.

The blade battery patent bears the name of Wang Chuanfu, which is highly reliable

More than a month ago, on March 29, Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD Group, said at the conference that blade batteries would completely erase the word "self ignition" from the dictionary of new energy vehicles.

As far as BYD is concerned, the safety of new energy vehicles has always been regarded as the highest level, and it has kept the battery safety of new energy vehicles accident free. Over the years, BYD has also been committed to innovation in battery safety, hoping to completely solve the safety pain points of new energy vehicles and lead the global power lithium battery technology path back to the right path.

In the acupuncture experiment of the announcement meeting, the surface temperature of the ternary lithium battery quickly exceeded 500 ℃ and began to burn violently at the moment of acupuncture. The traditional lithium iron phosphate bulk battery with higher stability had no open fire and smoke after acupuncture, and the surface temperature reached 200 ℃~400 ℃. However, BYD's blade battery had no open fire and smoke after acupuncture, and the battery surface temperature remained about 30 ℃ - 60 ℃.

At present, the national standard Safety Requirements for Lithium Ion Power Batteries for Electric Vehicles is still in the stage of soliciting opinions, and it is still being selectively implemented by the company as an optional project. A large part of the reason is that most ternary lithium batteries cannot pass the test at present.

From the perspective of cost, BYD has changed the battery size on the original basis, showing flat and long shapes. In addition, BYD has not released too many technical details.

However, the conclusion can be summarized as follows:

1. The bulk energy density of blade battery is improved;

2. The overall cost of blade battery is reduced;

3. Blade battery has very high safety;

In addition, BYD also announced that the blade battery has been mass produced and will be installed in the Han model launched next month.

And the company's emphasis can also be used as an important basis for judging the degree of reliability.

Due to mass production soon, BYD also needs to protect its intellectual property rights. Generally, patents as the core competitiveness of the company will be written with the name of the company leader.

We can see from the public information that the name of BYD founder Wang Chuanfu is written on the core patent of BYD blade battery.

In the phase of gradually entering the summer, many electric vehicle spontaneous combustion incidents occurred again in China. BYD released the technology, quickly produced in mass production, and kept it highly confidential. By taking solving the problem of electric vehicle spontaneous combustion as a breakthrough, BYD's power lithium battery, which was once considered to be on the wrong path, returned to the spotlight.

However, safety and battery density and capacity have always been a contradiction. Whether the blade battery has solved this contradiction, I believe the consumer's evaluation will be objective after the listing in Han.

TSLA slowly began to develop its own battery road

The current battery suppliers of TSLA are Panasonic and CATL, but TSLA's intention to develop batteries by itself has not stopped. The reason for the high probability is that even the best batteries in the current market still cannot satisfy Musk.

At present, it is reported that TSLA has published a patent for the latest battery technology, which is more pragmatic and is an improvement on the previous basis.

TSLA claims that previous battery heating methods sometimes lead to the formation of impurities called lithium substrate Li5AIO4, which reduces the lithium content in the battery.

Although it can reduce pollution, it will also make the battery performance worse.

In order to solve these problems, TSLA proposed a method of synthesizing nickel cobalt aluminum electrode.

As described in the patent, the battery will be heated to a temperature sufficient for single crystal growth.

The modified ratio of lithium to other metals will limit the formation of impurities during the first heating. Lithium will be heated a second time at a temperature lower than the first heating cycle.

Researchers involved in patent pointed out that this process is helpful to develop impurity free single crystal NCA, enabling battery to achieve more than 4000 charging cycles.

TSLA wrote in its patent that the use of NCA electrode in the battery will enable the single crystal material to be presented without impurities. The reduction of pollutants may extend the overall life of the battery, which will help TSLA take a big step on the road to produce batteries with a life of up to 1 million miles for its vehicles.

In fact, the battery of TSLA has been in an improved state. Over the years, the battery used by the company for vehicles and energy storage systems has become more energy intensive. The economies of scale realized with the help of gigabit plants and other facilities also help TSLA approach the level of $100 per kilowatt hour to a large extent.

It is generally believed that at this level, the price of electric vehicles can reach the same level as that of internal combustion vehicles.

That is to say, TSLA still adheres to the technical road of ternary lithium battery, and is constantly improving and optimizing and saving costs. At present, TSLA's technical route is the most stable way. Although the probability of fundamental technological breakthrough is small, this is the best choice for a sustainable business.

CATL: We are better at blade batteries, and the development of cobalt free batteries is smooth

On May 11, CATL held an online presentation of 2019 annual performance. At the briefing, the details of the cooperation between CATL and TSLA became one of the issues most mentioned by investors.

Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, said at the performance briefing that CATL will officially supply to TSLA in the second half of this year, and the products will not be limited to lithium iron phosphate or ternary batteries, depending on market demand.

Musk told me that TSLA wanted to make its own battery. As far as I know, their technical route will not have an impact on us. And we are discussing how to make batteries better to serve the new energy cause. Zeng Yuqun further revealed that CATL has its own technical reserve of cobalt free batteries. At present, research and development are progressing smoothly and it is trying to improve the supply chain, because this is a new and subversive product.

In addition, CATL expressed its own opinion on BYD's blade battery technology proposed by investors: blade battery is also one of the CTP (Cell to Pack, non module power lithium battery pack) structural innovation concepts that CATL produced in mass in 2016. We have selected and produced the best CTP structural innovation, such as CTP-0, CTP-1, and CTP-2. Zeng Yuqun said.

At present, CATL, as the largest battery supplier in China, not only develops rapidly in ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery, but also has no slack in the research and development of new generation battery.

It is understood that most batteries on the market now contain cobalt, which is a rare metal and is one of the most expensive battery components. Cobalt free batteries do not contain cobalt, so the cost of the battery cost will be about one fifth lower than that of ternary lithium batteries.

As for the air separation dialogue with BYD, the new generation batteries of both sides still have no mass production products, so it is still impossible to compare them technically.

However, BYD also replied to a microblog every other day and was skeptical of CATL.

However, CATL's comprehensive strength in various types of batteries is beyond doubt, and the pain point of battery cost is also a problem that must be solved to restrict the development of new energy. The future of cobalt free battery technology is promising.

Development under the coexistence of multiple technical routes

No matter how the route of battery technology changes, its fundamental purpose is to make electric vehicles charging fast, safe and far away.

The emergence of multiple routes also shows that there is still no optimal solution for the current technical road. In China, we hope to find a way to overtake at corners and have more imagination, which is the driving force of human social progress.

But we don't want to claim anything for the sake of gimmicks. The development of battery technology seems to be slow, but even since TSLA entered China in 2014, the development of power lithium battery technology has been earth shaking in the past six years.

However, in the face of the endless spontaneous combustion of electric vehicles, the entire industry should work hard together, just as the capacity of Panasonic 18,650 battery has risen a little bit like 3.2-3.5-3.7-4.0Ah.

This non explosive but cumulative progress may be the best model for the stable and healthy development of the electric vehicle industry.

Will the lithium power battery usher in a predictable singular moment?

In the absence of major breakthroughs in basic science, breakthroughs that frequently exceed 100% may become a joke in a few years.

However, when electric vehicles become a healthy industry and a profitable industrial chain has been formed, it is only a matter of time before breakthroughs are made in both technical and commercial aspects.

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