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The production of domestic power lithium batteries may shift from oversupply to oversupply.

According to the Economic Information Daily, some aspects of power lithium batteries have experienced blind expansion in production, hoarding and unfair competition in recent times. Experts suggest that the development and utilization of domestic lithium resources should be accelerated, the production scale should be appropriately expanded, and technological breakthroughs should also be accelerated.

Since this year, several battery manufacturers, including CATL, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Xinwanda, and Funeng Technology, have announced multiple expansion plans. According to incomplete statistics, at least 75 investment plans have been announced in the field of power lithium batteries this year, with a total investment amount of over trillion yuan. According to China Automotive News, the planned new production this year has exceeded 1000 GWh, which is about 10 times the total amount of power lithium battery installed this year.

Major new production this year is mainly from leading companies, taking CATL as an example. Since 2022, at least 10 major investment projects have been announced with partners, with a total investment of over 150 billion yuan. CATL currently produces 65.45GWh of power lithium batteries and energy storage systems, while the production under construction is 92.50GWh. In August this year, CATL launched a fixed increase of up to 58.2 billion yuan, planning to add 137GWh of production. It is expected that the output of Ningde will exceed 500GWh in 2025.

BYD is also focusing on increasing the production of power lithium batteries. Last August, it successively added four battery companies, namely Wuwei Ferdi, Yancheng Ferdi, Jinan Ferdi, and Shaoxing Ferdi. In September this year, the BYD 10GWh hybrid lithium battery and 5GWh new battery project of Guangxi ASEAN Fodi Battery Co., Ltd. began; In November, the BYD Ford Power Lithium Battery Production Base Project was officially established in Xuzhou Economic Development Zone, with a planned investment of 10 billion yuan.

It is worth noting that second-tier manufacturers are also not willing to be outdone, and their production momentum is not inferior to that of the first tier. According to the research report of Zheshang Securities on December 2nd, the planned compound growth rate of domestic second-tier power lithium battery manufacturers' production from 2023 to 2025 is 46%, significantly higher than that of first-tier manufacturers (28%) and the overall industry (35%). In response, analysts from Everbright Securities pointed out in their research report on October 27 that while the current leading pattern is stabilizing, domestic secondary battery manufacturers such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, AVIC Lithium, and Honeycomb Energy are gradually entering.

However, the planned excess production of power lithium batteries does not represent actual production in the future. As for power lithium battery manufacturers, this is only a necessary step to take in order to break down the stronghold. After excess production of power lithium batteries, the first source of revenue will be new energy vehicle OEMs, which will have higher bargaining power. Of course, our consumers will also benefit, and then there will be a reshuffle of power lithium battery manufacturers.

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