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As for the reasons for the decline of electrolytic cobalt quotation, SMM research shows that, on the one hand, the current price of electrolytic cobalt futures has fallen, and traders have subsequently lowered their quotations; on the other hand, with the recent completion of the delivery and storage of the first large factory, the market sentiment that was previously hyped by the delivery and storage has gradually returned to a flat state.

At the same time, the supply of electrolytic cobalt continues to increase, while downstream consumption has shown mediocre performance. Specifically, although the performance of high-temperature alloys is decent, the performance of the magnetic material market is relatively poor. Under the comprehensive influence of various factors, the price of electrolytic cobalt has turned around and entered a downward channel.

Regarding cobalt sulfate: The price of cobalt sulfate has temporarily remained stable this week. According to the SMM spot quotation, after a daily increase of 500 yuan/ton on March 14th, the spot quotation of cobalt sulfate dropped off all the gains in this round on March 17th. In the end, it remained stable compared to the quotation of 42000 to 4300 yuan/ton on March 10th, with an average price of 42500 yuan/ton.

According to the latest research by SMM, in the first half of the week, due to the transmission effect of the initial cost increase, the cobalt salt factory's quotation increased and there was a strong willingness to support the price, leading to a slight increase in the transaction price of cobalt sulfate. Due to the expected weakening of power demand recovery in mid week, the willingness of the front wheel drive to stock further decreased. SMM believes that although costs have some support for the future market expectations of cobalt sulfate, due to the expected impact of weak demand, it is expected that the price of cobalt sulfate may still slightly decline in the future.

Cobalt tetroxide: Cobalt tetroxide rose by 1000 yuan/ton on the first trading day of this week, March 13th, and there has been no price fluctuation since then. As of March 17th, the spot price of cobalt tetroxide remained stable at 17000 to 179000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 174500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58% compared to March 10th.

According to SMM research, the raw material cobalt sulfate has increased, and the quotation of cobalt tetroxide enterprises has also slightly increased, but at the same time, there has been a lack of momentum in the increase. Moreover, the downstream market is still in a weak state of consumption recently, and the demand for lithium cobalt oxide positive electrodes is light. However, considering the relatively strong price of cobalt sulfate at the raw material end, SMM expects that the price of cobalt tetroxide may remain stable in the future.

It is worth mentioning that in early February, Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that according to the company's 2023 production guidelines announced by Luoyang Molybdenum Industry, it is expected that the company's copper production in 2023 will total 384-447 thousand tons, with a median of 415500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 50%, and cobalt production of 45-5400 tons, with a median of 49500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 144%.

According to the completion of the company's 2022 production guidelines, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry's copper and cobalt production in 2022 reached 102% and 107% of the median planned at the beginning of the year, respectively, exceeding its previous guidance expectations. Therefore, Minsheng Securities predicts that Luoyang Molybdenum Industry will significantly release copper and cobalt production in the next two years. It is reported that the construction of the company's TFM mixed mine and KFM copper cobalt mine projects continues to advance. After the completion of the TFM mixed mine, an additional 200000 tons of copper metal and 17000 tons of cobalt metal production capacity will be added. After the completion of the KFM copper cobalt mine, an additional 90000 tons of copper metal and 30000 tons of cobalt metal production capacity will be added. At present, the trial operation of KFM's copper and cobalt business is normal, and it is expected to be put into operation in the second quarter of 2023. Considering the high grade of initial selection, it can contribute 70000 to 90000 tons of copper production and 24000 to 30000 tons of cobalt production by 2023. The issue of increasing TFM reserve equity funds is still in communication and negotiation, but the construction of the TFM mixed mine has not been affected and is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2023 as originally planned.

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