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Chilean President Boric said that the Chilean government will submit a bill to parliament in the second half of this year to create a state-owned lithium industry company, which will work with partners to develop value-added product projects. He emphasized that for projects with strategic value to the country, Chilean state-owned enterprises must occupy a controlling position in public-private partnerships.

On the evening of April 20th, Chilean President Boric ć delivered a televised speech at the Moneda Palace in the Presidential Palace, announcing the country's participation in the entire process of lithium resource development. Boric said that the Chilean government will submit a bill to parliament in the second half of this year to create a state-owned lithium industry company, which will work with partners to develop value-added product projects. He emphasized that for projects with strategic value to the country, Chilean state-owned enterprises must occupy a controlling position in public-private partnerships.

Borich stated that Chile is one of the countries with the largest lithium reserves in the world. Lithium batteries, as energy storage batteries for buses and electric vehicles, are key to addressing the climate crisis and change. For Chile, this is an economic growth opportunity that is difficult to surpass in the short term.

Borich said that seizing the opportunity for lithium resource development is very important for Chile to achieve sustainable economic development. He stated that while promoting lithium mining development, creating wealth, achieving development and fair distribution of wealth, how to protect the environment and biodiversity is a challenge that Chile faces.

Currently, in Chile, two private enterprises are authorized to mine lithium resources through a concession development contract, namely Chilean Chemical Mining Company and American Yabao Company. The current contracts of the two companies will expire in 2030 and 2043, respectively.

According to data, Tianqi Lithium owns 23.77% of the world's largest producer of lithium carbonate, Chilean Chemical Company (SQM).

Previously, the person in charge of Tianqi Lithium Industry stated in a media interview that the company had already signed a contract with the local government in Chile and obtained a lithium resource quota before December 31, 2030, which will not be changed.

On April 22nd, Chile's global lithium giant SQM stated its hope that Chile's lithium strategy will promote production growth.

In addition to the relevant layout of Tianqi Lithium in Chile, according to the official website of Chilean state-owned company Corfo on April 19, BYD (002594) has been granted the status of qualified lithium producer for Chilean company, so that it can obtain preferential prices for battery grade lithium carbonate quotas.

It is reported that BYD's "BYD Chile Lithium Cathode Plant" project in the Antofagasta region of Chile will receive 11244 tons/year of supply from SQM Salar until 2030. The annual output target of the plant is 50000 tons of LiFePO4 (lithium iron phosphate battery) materials, with an investment scale of at least $290 million. The factory will be put into operation before the end of 2025.

In 2022, some media reported that Argentina, Bolivia and Chile are committed to promoting the establishment of a "lithium triangle OPEC" similar to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), so as to reach a "price agreement" in the case of lithium price fluctuations. If Chile's nationalization plan for lithium mines is successfully implemented, it will be promoted.

Some sources believe that if Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia reach a consensus first, the future organization can also absorb the participation of global lithium producing countries such as Australia.

China CITIC Construction Investment Corporation stated that domestic consumption is improving month on month, and the recent Shanghai Auto Show is expected to boost car purchasing demand, leading to a rebound in demand throughout the entire industry chain; The release of lithium minerals on the supply side continues to be lower than expected, and the annual supply-demand contradiction is not significant. The monthly oversupply in the first half of the year exacerbates the risk of monthly shortages in the second half, and the fundamentals of lithium in the second half are stronger than currently; The recent rapid decline in lithium prices has led to a slower decline in lithium ore prices. Lithium salt companies producing outsourced concentrates have a cost and selling price inversion, and the loss margin in April may increase. The supply side continues to reduce production to support prices. It is expected that the lithium salt price has reached the bottom range, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity for lithium price bottom layout.

Recently, Yu Qingjiao, Secretary General of the Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, stated at an event that China has established a comprehensive industrial chain with international competitive advantages, and the overall shipment volume of lithium batteries accounts for about 60% of the global market. Under optimistic circumstances, the shipment volume of lithium batteries in China will enter the TWh (1000GWh) era in 2023, and the global shipment volume of lithium batteries is expected to exceed 2 TWh in 2025!

In terms of raw material prices, from the second half of 2020 to the end of 2022, the prices of battery materials such as lithium carbonate and lithium iron phosphate have significantly increased, posing significant pressure on battery companies' costs. Taking battery grade lithium carbonate as an example, from less than 45000 yuan/ton in July 2020 to 600000 yuan/ton at its peak in the fourth quarter of 2022, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate has increased more than 12 times in two years. In 2023, the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline, and the current price has dropped to around 150000 yuan/ton. Even the previously popular battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate have fallen below the price of 100000 yuan/ton.

Yu Qingjiao pointed out that the decline in lithium prices has two sides: on the one hand, a moderate price reduction is a good thing, which is undoubtedly beneficial for reducing the cost of lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and energy storage, and has a promoting effect on the construction of a healthy ecological chain in the lithium battery industry.

On the other hand, if excessive price reduction leads to losses, it is believed that the enthusiasm of domestic enterprises for mining will cool down. In the future, with the acceleration of the transformation of domestic traditional automobile enterprises to the new energy field, and the acceleration of the layout rhythm of multinational automobile enterprises such as Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz, BMW, Tesla, etc., the market penetration of new energy vehicles will continue to increase, stimulating the demand for strategic mineral resources such as lithium, cobalt and nickel, and the resource constraints will increase.

In terms of supply, China's lithium resources mainly rely on imports from Australia and Argentina, with a high degree of external dependence, and this state will continue for a long time in the future. Yu Qingjiao stated that currently only 7 lithium mines in Australia are operating, with 1 being in litigation and 6 being divided by giants such as Yabao, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium in the United States.

In recent years, China has also accelerated the development progress of domestic lithium resources and focused on developing the battery recycling industry, expanding channels for lithium resources. However, the production of new lithium resource projects in China still requires time. Due to the low grade and regional environment, the development cost advantage is not obvious, and the scale of battery recycling is still small and has not yet formed a closed loop, making a small contribution to the increment of lithium resources.

Therefore, according to Puritan analysis, "There is a closed-loop thinking in the battery industry chain, but the recycling industry is not yet mature! It is urgent to strengthen supervision and regulation, and establish a business model. For mineral resources such as new energy materials, we need a strategic perspective and long-term layout, and we cannot wait until the market gets bigger and gets stuck in the neck again

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