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The transition period of subsidies for new energy vehicles is coming to an end, and the subsidy dividend is accelerating to fade. The performance pressure on power battery companies is increasing. Under the pressure of power battery duopoly and intensified competition for the market by foreign investment, what is the way out for Chinese power battery companies?

Recently, Battery Network analyzed the performance of 188 lithium battery concept stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and found that the performance differentiation of lithium battery listed companies has intensified. Among the 188 enterprises included in the statistics, the total revenue in 2018 was about 1333.227 billion yuan, with an average revenue of about 7.092 billion yuan; The total net profit is about 43.429 billion yuan, with an average net profit of about 231 million yuan. Among them, BYD has the highest revenue of 130055 million yuan.

At the same time, Battery Network also conducted special statistics on the performance of 20 listed companies involved in the production and manufacturing of lithium batteries. In 2018, the total revenue was 279.489 billion yuan, with an average revenue of nearly 14 billion yuan; The total net profit is about 2.405 billion yuan, with an average net profit of about 120 million yuan; Among them, 5 companies suffered losses in 2018. In the first quarter of 2019, the total revenue was 64.778 billion yuan, with an average revenue of 3.239 billion yuan; 9 enterprises with revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan; The net profit is approximately 2.216 billion yuan, with an average net profit of approximately 111 million yuan; Six companies have net profits exceeding 100 million yuan; Among them, four companies suffered losses in the first quarter of 2019.

Another set of data shows that in 2016, there were 155 power battery production enterprises. By 2018, the number of power battery enterprises with actual installed capacity had decreased to 99. The two leading enterprises, Ningde Times and BYD, accounted for over 60% of the national market share, and the top ten even held over 80% of the market share. In the post subsidy era, the power battery industry has launched a "elimination race". Some institutions predict that by 2020, after the subsidy is completely withdrawn, there will be approximately 20 remaining companies in the power battery market.

In addition, on April 8th, the 318th batch of motor vehicle companies and product announcements released on the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as well as the third batch of 2019 "New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Recommended Model Catalog", included models equipped with Korean power batteries. In addition, Japanese and Korean power battery companies have advanced their layout in the Chinese market. Under competition, the industry reshuffle storm is imminent, and small market share enterprises are bound to face the risk of being eliminated.

The transition period of subsidies for new energy vehicles is coming to an end, and the subsidy dividend is accelerating to fade. The performance pressure on power battery companies is increasing. Under the pressure of power battery duopoly and intensified competition for the market by foreign investment, what is the way out for Chinese power battery companies?

On May 9th, sponsored by the Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, the Battery Hundred People Association, and Henan Huiqiang New Energy Materials Technology Co., Ltd., and supported by Huaxia Happiness Foundation Co., Ltd., the Battery Hundred People Association entrepreneur "asked" at the eighth meeting of the first board of directors of the Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance in Chaya Mountain, Industry experts and entrepreneurs deeply shared how power battery companies aim for high-quality development in differentiated markets in the post subsidy era, jointly exploring the difficulties and solutions of energy storage and cascade utilization in the 3C consumer lithium battery market, the application of small power batteries in industries such as smart homes, drones, and electric tools, and the market dynamics of new energy specialized vehicles (ports, airports, municipal gardens, logistics, etc.) Analysis and industry trends, etc.

In the view of Yu Qingjiao, the Secretary General of the Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance and the Chairman of the Battery Hundred Association, power batteries are currently entering a "single wooden bridge" of capacity competition and excessive expansion. At the same time, the price war within the industry is upgrading, and enterprises are engaged in bottomless price competition of "killing one thousand enemies and self losing eight hundred".

According to the Puritan Church, there is still a gap in cost and technology accumulation between domestic battery companies and Japanese and Korean battery companies at present. With the end of the subsidy transition period, local battery companies will face survival problems. After the subsidy is completely withdrawn in 2020, a fierce competition will truly unfold. In addition, the power battery market also faces a situation of low capacity utilization. In 2018, except for Ningde Times and BYD, the capacity utilization rates reached 76% and 54% respectively. The capacity utilization rates of the eight power battery companies in the second camp were below 40%, generally around 10%. Yu Qingjiao suggested that enterprises do not necessarily have to compete on the "single wooden bridge" of passenger cars and electric bus power batteries, but should seek differentiated markets, such as energy storage market, small power battery market such as electric tool battery, and smart home battery market.

Taking the energy storage market as an example, according to statistics from the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance, as of the end of December 2018, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage projects that have been put into operation worldwide is 180.9GW. Industry insiders say that the development prospects of the energy storage market are broad, and the future market size may even exceed that of power batteries.

At the meeting, Professor Lu from Peking University stated that in the domestic market, the cost of photovoltaic and wind power is already below 0.3 RMB/kWh, and the nighttime electricity price in some regions is below 0.1 RMB/kWh. Therefore, large-scale electricity storage is imperative. In order to solve the problems of peak valley power and wind and photovoltaic limitations, State Power is planning to invest tens of billions to establish water lifting and peak shaving power stations. In addition, several new megawatt level lithium battery energy storage power stations are currently being designed, and there is an urgent need for cost-effective large capacity lithium batteries and feasible design solutions. Qilu believes that off-grid lithium batteries have promising prospects for energy storage and power generation, and lithium batteries with good cost-effectiveness are expected to enter the automotive starting power market.

Wu Hui, Vice President of Ivy Economic Research Institute, pointed out that in 2018, the new installed capacity of global electrochemical energy storage reached 3.5GW, with a cumulative installed capacity of 6.5GW; The Chinese market reached 0.6GW and 1.0GW respectively. Both the global and Chinese markets saw substantial growth in electrochemical energy storage in 2018, and the overall industry entered the "GW/GWh" era.

Taking the intelligent terminal market as an example, in the context of the big internet era, mobile internet and intelligent IoT have quietly changed users' consumption habits, and the trend of mobility and intelligence has become. Jia Qiurong, Minister of 3C Technology Department of Bike Battery, stated that a large number of terminal devices require strong "core" power to drive.

In 2018, the shipment volume of lithium batteries in the three major fields in China reached 105GWh, and the cumulative installed capacity of power lithium batteries was 56.89GWh, accounting for 54%; 39GWh of small lithium batteries, accounting for 37%; Energy storage accounts for 7%. Jia Qiurong predicts that in the future, power lithium batteries will be the biggest driving force for market growth; The demand for small lithium batteries in the market has steadily increased; Other applications such as energy storage lithium batteries are gradually developing. It is expected that the market demand for small lithium-ion batteries in China will reach 55GWh in 2021, with 5G becoming a new driver for small lithium-ion batteries.

Xiao Huadong, General Manager of Xinte Automobile Intelligent Interconnection Center, pointed out that government subsidies have led to the abnormal development of the new energy industry, highlighting the dominance of the company. With the complete decline of subsidies, the application of battery types in the automotive market will increase, and the industry as a whole will achieve a "hundred flowers blooming".

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