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Recently, Ningde Times and Geely established a joint venture to further lock in future market share through marriage with car companies; BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu stated that he plans to list his battery business by 2022 and accelerate his pursuit of the power battery market; Funeng Technology has recently won a large battery order of over 10 billion euros from European luxury car manufacturers, gradually highlighting the temperament of the first tier enterprises.

The frequent major actions of leading enterprises reflect the strong market demand for power batteries in the future, and the significant increase in installed capacity of battery enterprises this year also confirms this. According to data from the Research Department of the Power Battery Application Branch, in November 2018, the installed capacity of power batteries for new energy vehicles in China was approximately 8.91 GWh, an increase of 50.22% month on month and 28.53% year on year; The total installed capacity from January to November is approximately 43.53GWh. Overall, the installed capacity of power batteries increased by an average of 25.48% month on month from January to November 2018.

The average gross profit margin of China's lithium battery equipment industry exceeds 30%, and market competitiveness is further strengthened

Based on the prediction of market demand, major domestic battery companies have increased their production expansion efforts since 2018. Among them, the combined planned production capacity of Ningde Times and BYD is expected to exceed 130GWh by 2022, while Funeng Technology plans to reach 60GWh by 2020; And the production capacity planning of companies such as Tafel, Mengshi Technology, Xingheng Power, and Mengguli is not less than 10GWh each.

Lithium battery equipment: 100 billion yuan cake

Benefiting from the significant increase in installed capacity and continuous expansion of production by domestic power battery companies, domestic lithium battery equipment production enterprises have entered a peak period of orders, and the performance of equipment enterprises has been steadily improving. With the implementation of the dual point system, foreign new energy vehicles such as Tesla have landed in China, and restrictions on foreign equity ratios have been lifted. Traditional automotive giants such as BMW have opened up the new energy vehicle market in China, which will attract corresponding overseas battery leaders such as LG Chemical, Samsung SDI, and Panasonic to establish factories in China, which will also drive the growth of demand for lithium battery equipment.

Recently, Nebula Corporation announced that as of the disclosure date (December 13), the company and its controlling subsidiaries had signed contracts with BYD and its subsidiaries totaling 115 million yuan for 12 consecutive months. It is reported that in 2018, Pioneer Intelligence and its wholly-owned subsidiary Titan New Power successively received notification of winning the bid from Ningde Times. Pioneer Intelligence's winning project was for the winding machine equipment, while Titan New Power's winning project was for the conversion machine and capacity machine equipment, with a cumulative winning amount of 915 million yuan. It is understood that Yinghe Technology has received orders from domestic and foreign frontline power battery manufacturers such as LG Chemical, Ningde Times, and BYD this year.

While lithium battery equipment enterprises have obtained Dafengshou (Salad of assorted fresh vegetables) orders, their business performance has also been "sesame blooming steadily". According to the announcement of Yinghe Technology, the company's operating revenue in the first three quarters of 2018 was 1.366 billion yuan, an increase of 15.15% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 208 million yuan, an increase of 48.15% year-on-year. According to the 2018 third quarter report of Pioneer Intelligence, the operating revenue in the first three quarters was 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 157.26%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 547 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.37%.

In the future, orders from lithium-ion equipment companies will significantly increase, boosting their performance further.

Industry analysis suggests that from the recent situation, the second half of 2019 may become a centralized procurement period for lithium battery equipment, and there is a high demand for lithium battery equipment in 2019. According to calculations, the new orders in the lithium battery equipment industry are expected to exceed 80GWh in 2019, a year-on-year increase of over 35%, and there is a possibility of exceeding expectations.

In the long run, the cake of lithium-ion devices will be even larger. According to the prediction of Bank of China International, assuming that the global penetration rate of electric vehicles reaches 15% -20% by 2025, and based on an investment of 400 million -500 million yuan per 1 GWh, it is estimated that the scale of the lithium battery equipment market in the future will reach 40 billion -60 billion yuan. Assuming that the global penetration rate of electric vehicles reaches 50% by 2030, and based on the investment of 400-50 billion yuan per 1 GWh of power batteries, the global average annual market size of lithium-ion equipment is 80-100 billion yuan.

Gross profit margin exceeding 30%

Lithium battery equipment manufacturing belongs to the non-standard equipment customization industry, which has attracted many enterprises to enter the lithium battery equipment industry in recent years due to high industry demand and relatively high gross profit margin. It is understood that the average gross profit margin of China's lithium battery equipment industry exceeds 30%, with a total of hundreds of enterprises in the industry. At present, the domestic enterprises that master lithium battery equipment technology and have a relatively large production scale mainly include Pioneer Intelligence, Yinghe Technology, Haoneng Technology, Jiyang Technology, Qixing Huachuang, Haimu Star, Xinjiatuo, Chengjie Intelligence, and other enterprises.

It is understood that in the lithium battery equipment industry, the most intense competition is currently in the later stage of the lithium battery equipment field. Among the more than ten major types of equipment, the number of equipment companies in the first and middle stages is basically maintained at around 10-15. In contrast, although the market space for equipment in the later stage only accounts for 20-30% of the equipment space, there are around 20 competing companies in packaging, packaging, and testing equipment. It is understood that the fierce competition for equipment in the later stage is mainly due to lower technical barriers and capital barriers.

Like the power battery industry, there is also a reshuffle phenomenon in the current lithium battery equipment industry, showing a situation where the strong remain strong and the weak become weaker. Similar to the overall industry, small lithium battery equipment companies currently face financial constraints, high accounts receivable, and market share being squeezed by leading enterprises, making their operations increasingly difficult. However, large leading enterprises have further strengthened their market competitiveness due to their advantages in technology, capital, and scale.

In short, in the long run, the incremental demand for lithium battery equipment will come from the replacement and upgrading of existing equipment, the replacement of imported equipment, and the increasing demand for lithium batteries in energy storage and other fields. In the future, the concentration ratio of the lithium battery market will continue to increase. The personalized demand of lithium battery manufacturers makes them have a certain degree of stickiness to lithium battery equipment manufacturers. Enterprises that rely on technological advantages to form a bond with the battery leader have a first mover advantage; Enterprises with the ability to provide full line solutions can accelerate the process of new customer development and thereby increase market share.

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