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With the decline of new energy subsidies in 2019, the dust has settled, and there is no subsidy for pure electric passenger vehicles with a range of 250 kilometers or less. The subsidy amount for pure electric passenger vehicles with a range of 250 kilometers (including 250 kilometers) to 400 kilometers is 18000 yuan, and the subsidy for the decline is about 60%. However, recently, reporters visited multiple car 4S stores and learned that although some brands have seen price increases for some models, the market has not yet experienced a large-scale price increase.

investigation

The price has not significantly increased yet

If there is no new notification from the manufacturer, we will continue to sell cars at the 2018 subsidy standard price. "A salesperson at a BYD 4S store revealed that due to the manufacturer's subsidy, all new energy models under the BYD brand in the store currently enjoy the 2018 subsidy policy.

At present, consumers will not be affected by the subsidy decline when purchasing cars, "said a salesperson at the Changan Yingwang 4S store. The Changan CS75PHEV, Changan CS15EV, and Yidong EV460 have not been priced up. Not only that, consumers can also enjoy benefits such as installment interest free and free charging stations.

We have currently launched a limited time discount activity, with some models offering discounts of up to 54000 yuan. "The staff of the Chongqing NIO Experience Store said that NIO ES6 has launched a limited time discount, with discounts ranging from 30000 yuan to 54000 yuan.

For models with a NEDC comprehensive range of only about 250km or even lower, many 4S stores have instead adopted preferential sales measures. A certain NEDC model with a comprehensive driving range of just over 250km in a self owned brand 4S store is undergoing a promotion and discount of approximately 30000 yuan.

Many car companies insist on "bottom line" pricing

Faced with the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles, the performance of 4S stores varies, ultimately depending on the attitude of car companies. Rising or not, it seems more urgent than dealing with Tesla's offensive.

In response to the policy of declining subsidies for new energy, Chang'an New Energy has recently introduced a "worry free" policy for its best-selling new energy vehicles. Among them, the Changan CS75PHEV and Changan CS15EV models were registered before June 25th and continue to enjoy the 2018 subsidy quota, while the Yidong EV460 can enjoy partial subsidies. It is worth mentioning that consumers who purchase cars within the deadline can not only enjoy official car purchase subsidies, but also enjoy benefits such as installment interest free and free charging stations. For example, if a CS75PHEV is purchased and registered before June 25, 2019, in addition to official additional subsidies, which maintain the 2018 subsidy amount, car buyers can also enjoy preferential policies such as 36 interest free loans, free compulsory traffic insurance, a second-hand car replacement subsidy of 5000 yuan, a lifetime free battery cell warranty, and free charging pile installation and use.

On the second day after the release of the 2019 new energy subsidy policy, SAIC Roewe made a "guaranteed price" commitment: from March 27 to June 25, 2019, the prices of all Roewe new energy models will remain unchanged after the 2018 subsidy, and they will still enjoy the full subsidy in 2018. The price difference caused by subsidy downgrade will be compensated by Roewe.

BYD has also introduced corresponding subsidy policies, with several popular models such as the Tang DM, Song DM, and Song EV500 under its umbrella enjoying all 2018 subsidy policies before June 25th.

For some other brands, some consumers can already clearly feel the impact of subsidy decline. Taking the NIO ES8 as an example, bookings on March 26th can enjoy a subsidy of 67500 yuan, while on the 27th, it was only 27000 yuan. Although NIO subsequently launched a price guarantee plan for the ES8, consumers paid a subsidy of 55800 yuan for purchasing or paying a large order before March 31, while from April 1 to June 25, the subsidy amount for the car was 40500 yuan.

The overall price range of the Xiaopeng G3 has increased from 135800-165800 yuan to 155800-199800 yuan, with the top of the line premium version increasing by 34000 yuan or 20.5%. The price of EX360 has increased, with a price increase of 5000 yuan for all models, an increase of 4.8% -6.3%.

Is it cost-effective to buy a car with a fork at this time?

According to the new policy, a subsidy transition period will be set from March 26th to June 25th. During the transitional period, new energy vehicle models will be subsidized proportionally according to the 2018 and 2019 standards; After the transition period, local subsidies will be abolished and replaced with subsidies for charging infrastructure.

A salesperson at a BYD 4S store in Chongqing said that currently, the price has not been adjusted, but the pricing policy may change at any time, and there is a possibility of price increases. If you want to buy, place an order as soon as possible. Other domestic brands' in store sales have also expressed that the terminal selling price of new energy vehicles will be "bullish".

However, for "down fork" new energy vehicles, it is necessary to consider the residual value of second-hand cars. In the past few years, the range of pure electric vehicles was generally not high, and the comprehensive driving range of 150 kilometers was already good. Now, starting from at least 250 kilometers, some "top-notch" pure electric vehicles can reach a range of over 400 kilometers, and the price has also been significantly reduced. As technology matures, the manufacturing cost of new energy vehicles will further decrease.

A BYD e6 owner admitted that he was registered in July 2017 and only drove about 5000 kilometers. Recently, he learned that his car's second-hand price was only 198000 yuan. The recommended new car market price for this car is 369800 yuan.

The reporter logged into the Guazi second-hand car website and found that the 2015 BAIC EV160, which had traveled 20000 kilometers, had a listed price of only 27000 yuan, equivalent to 23% of the subsidized selling price at that time.

A person familiar with used cars revealed that even Tesla, the "leader" in the new energy vehicle industry, cannot be spared. Taking the Tesla ModelS, which was registered in 2015, as an example, the two-year old model has a preservation rate of 69%. By 2018, the three-year old model has a preservation rate of only 33.6%.

Except for Tesla, other brands do not accept it, "more than eight kilometers of used car dealers told reporters.

depth

Technology empowers faster updates and replacements

With the completion of the previous round of dividend release, car companies have started to seek new strategies. At the recently concluded International Auto Show in Shanghai, reporters noticed that the speed of car companies updating and upgrading is accelerating. Many car companies are starting to focus on hydrogen powered vehicles or are targeting extended range electric vehicles with longer battery life.

New products with "ultra long standby" are being laid out one after another

For a long time, the range of new energy vehicles has been a 'trough point'. In the advertisement, it is said that an electric car can run 300 kilometers when fully charged, and sometimes it runs out of battery after less than 200 kilometers. Li Xiang, CEO of Chehejia and founder of AutoHome, complained directly on Weibo that many domestic auto brands are still using 60 constant speed to promote their endurance mileage when promoting electric vehicles, and even directly put such false endurance mileage figures on the rear of the car... Let's stop using these propaganda means to boast.

According to the new policy, the subsidy threshold for the range of pure electric vehicles was raised to 250km in 2019. Behind this, many car companies' new car range is constantly being "refreshed". Many car companies' flagship models, NEDC, have a comprehensive range of over 300km, "industry insiders said.

At the Shanghai Auto Show, many car companies even made "ultra long range" a key promotional highlight. Jinkang SERESSF5 opens pre-sale. As the only brand in China to launch dual versions in the field of electric vehicles. The SF5 pure electric model can accelerate up to 3.5 seconds per 100 kilometers, reach a maximum speed of 250km/h, and easily exceed 500 kilometers in NEDC range. The SF5 is based on a pure electric extended range model, which can achieve acceleration of less than 4.8 seconds per 100 kilometers and a maximum speed of 230 km/h. Its pure electric range is 150km, and after activating extended range assistance, the range can reach over 1000km.

The first mass-produced car model, Ideal Intelligent ONE, was also launched at the auto show. The new car adopts an extended range hybrid system, and the NEDC has a comprehensive range of over 800 kilometers. "No mileage anxiety" is the biggest highlight of the new car. On February 19th of this year, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Chongqing Lifan Automobile Co., Ltd. was renamed as "Chongqing Ideal Intelligent Manufacturing Automobile Co., Ltd.". After the change of ownership of the parent company, Chongqing Lifan Automobile Co., Ltd. Changzhou Branch was also renamed accordingly. At present, the factory with an annual production capacity of 100000 vehicles at Chehejia Changzhou manufacturing base has been completed.

Qingling Motors signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Bosch on new energy vehicles to jointly promote the landing and application of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles. In the field of hydrogen energy vehicles, Lifan, Zongshen, and others are also rapidly advancing. It is understood that hydrogen powered vehicles can easily exceed a range of 1000 kilometers and can complete refueling in an extremely short time, even surpassing traditional fuel vehicles in this regard.

The competitiveness of low range vehicles will continue to weaken

As the tide of subsidies recedes, the introduction of the new policy has brought a "hidden surge" to the market. Industry insiders say that the competitiveness of low range models in the market will continue to weaken and eventually be eliminated.

Looking at the current car market in China, the production and sales of new energy vehicles stand out. Whether it is foreign brands, domestic brands, or new forces in car manufacturing, new energy vehicles have become the "meat of the Tang Dynasty" in the eyes of many car companies, and competition is becoming more brutal. According to third-party data, nearly 40 new energy vehicle projects were launched in China in 2018, with an investment amount of nearly 400 billion yuan.

An outbreak of demand does not necessarily mean a smooth sailing. Changan Automobile President Zhu Huarong once introduced that there are a total of 71 vehicle groups and 455 new energy vehicle companies in China. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Announcement on the Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Points of Passenger Car Enterprises in 2018", only 95 enterprises (including domestic and imported) generated new energy vehicle points, accounting for 67% of the total number of passenger car enterprises reported in the announcement report, and many car enterprises have not formed actual production capacity. There are 46 new energy vehicles with zero points.

Last September, 30 large car companies, including Brilliance Motors and GAC Honda, were named by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for not producing new energy products for 12 months or more, and their production qualifications may be cancelled.

Among the new forces in car manufacturing, only a few companies, such as NIO, Xiaopeng, Weima, and Qiantu, can truly achieve mass production and delivery. The vast majority of companies are still stuck in the mass production process. Under the "cold winter" of capital, speculators who make cars and circle money through PPT will be the first to be wiped out.

Zhu Huarong once predicted that in the future, over 90% of new car building forces would be eliminated, which would become a probability event.

remind

Some issues faced by the industry need to be taken seriously

Many industry insiders such as Zhu Huarong believe that overall, the development of the new energy vehicle industry is relatively smooth, but there are also some issues that need to be taken seriously in reality.

The main driving force for the development of new energy vehicles is policy, and compared to traditional fuel vehicles, their own comparative advantages are still weak. From a consumer perspective, the top three reasons for purchasing new energy vehicles are limited license plates for fuel vehicles, restricted travel for fuel vehicles, tax exemptions and price subsidies for new energy vehicles. As for factors such as environmental protection and energy efficiency of new energy vehicles, consumers have less consideration.

Secondly, the long-standing issues of convenience, economy, and safety of new energy vehicles have not yet achieved a fundamental breakthrough. Convenience is mainly constrained by factors such as battery endurance, winter battery use, natural battery decay, charging station settings, and charging speed. Economy is mainly constrained by factors such as battery cost, battery and second-hand car recycling.

The third is that subsidy reduction and the introduction of foreign vehicles are two important challenges for the development of domestic brand cars. According to regulations, subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2019 will be reduced in total, and the requirements for various technical indicators of the vehicle and battery will also be higher. Low end products outside the subsidy threshold may be eliminated. In addition, after the introduction of the negative list of foreign investment in April 2018, restrictions on foreign equity ratios and joint ventures will gradually be lifted. It is expected that in the near future, new energy vehicle products from Tesla, Mercedes Benz, Audi, and Porsche will all enter the Chinese market. These brands will have a certain impact on domestic brands due to their accumulation of funds and technology in the traditional fuel vehicle field.

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