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Since 2017, the internal and external price difference of cobalt has undergone significant changes. In October 2018, the internal and external price difference reached a new high of 200000 yuan/ton, and the overseas price guidance function was disrupted, even affecting the cost control of domestic smelters. Some buyers who settled based on foreign media even claimed to have suffered huge economic losses themselves.

The price difference between inside and outside is huge, and domestic smelters refuse to sign long-term orders for cobalt raw materials. The pressure on overseas cobalt raw material suppliers to ship is huge, and finally there is no longer a stalemate. Foreign media quotations have started to decline, and so far, the price difference between inside and outside has gradually returned to a stable level. It is expected that the demand growth in the domestic cobalt market will be limited in the future, and the probability of increased supply is high. It is expected that cobalt prices will be prone to decline but difficult to rise.

In China's cobalt consumption structure, the lithium battery industry accounts for over 80%, while other traditional industries have a limited proportion and have reached saturation. In the lithium battery industry, digital electronics have a greater weight. Recently, there has been a heated discussion in the market about the arrival of the 5G era, which has driven the demand for digital electronics. The future demand for mobile phones mainly lies in three aspects: consumers' fixed replacement needs; There have been revolutionary breakthroughs in mobile phone software and hardware technology, as well as the development of communication technology. The application of 5G in the second half of 2019 will have a certain positive impact on the production of mobile phones, but it must be pointed out that due to the current saturation of the domestic mobile phone market, the replacement demand is more from the replacement demand. In terms of communication technology updates, although 3G and 4G technologies are currently widely used, 2G still has the largest coverage area, and some consumers still consider factors such as tariff costs, replacement costs, and network coverage quality, with 2% of consumers still using 2G phones.

In 2018, all three major operators stated that they had begun to promote 2G network frequency reduction work. It can be seen that even with the emergence of communication technology updates and iterations, the process of switching machines is still gradual. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also stated that in the second half of 2019, products with commercial use, such as 5G smartphones and 5G pads, will be launched on the market. However, in the future, only about 20% of 5G facilities will be used for communication issues between people, while 80% will still be used for IoT, IoT, and people, especially mobile IoT communication issues. It is expected that the impact of 5G on mobile phone demand in the second half of 2019 will not be significant, and it will be dragged down by the decline in global mobile phone market growth. Additionally, global mobile phone manufacturers are turning their attention to the Southeast Asian market represented by India, which has a relatively late popularization of smartphones. In the future, China's mobile phone production is not ideal, with an expected output of 1.643 billion units in 2019.

In terms of power batteries, there is also a lack of optimism. China's positive electrode material industry has severe overcapacity, and online subsidy policies will once again face a significant decline. The accounts receivable disclosed by various battery factories are also very tight, and the financial pressure will become even greater in 2019. Under severe environmental pressure, the growth rate of demand for power batteries may cool down.

It is expected that global cobalt supply will reach 169000 tons of metal tons in 2019, with a demand of 133400 tons of metal tons and an excess supply of 30000 tons. With the increasingly severe situation of global cobalt oversupply, the proportion of cobalt outsourcing by Chinese enterprises is gradually decreasing, and China's pricing power over cobalt as a global cobalt consumer will also gradually increase.

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