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1. The imbrication technology will overturn the existing component capacity

On the one hand, the efficiency of the new production line has been greatly improved. Before and after 2010, a component production line with an annual capacity of 200MW needs 350 employees, while now the component factory with the highest degree of automation needs only 50 people to make the whole production line operate normally.

On the one hand, the application of new technologies in component packaging is also accelerating. The application of MBB multi main gate technology, half chip technology and MWT technology are accelerating the depreciation process of old component equipment.

Therefore, the component production line will accelerate depreciation. However, the above technologies can be compatible with the existing component technology route, and the old component capacity can achieve the same effect through upgrading and transformation. Therefore, although the old capacity has accelerated its depreciation, it is not fatal.

However, the compatibility between the current imbricated module packaging technology and the existing component packaging technology is very low. Therefore, if the laminated tiles can become the mainstream, the capacity of the existing component links will be scrapped.

2. The reduction of component cost in the future depends on the reduction of single watt packaging cost

With the continuous decline of the price of polycrystalline battery chips, a historic event has occurred recently:

The battery cost of a Model 60 module is lower than the packaging cost!

60 pieces of components: battery cost VS packaging cost

1) Battery chip cost

At present, the price of a polycrystalline battery chip with efficiency<18.6% is about 3.77 yuan; Then the cost of 60 cells required for one component is 3.77 × 60=226 yuan.

2) Packaging cost

The packaging cost of one piece of components including tax has reached 185 × 1.16=214.6 yuan, as shown in the table below. In addition, we should not forget the cost of transportation and quality assurance. This cost is related to the area and should be included in the cost of components. At present, this cost accounts for about 4% of the production cost, which is equivalent to the average freight and quality assurance cost of 22 yuan per piece of Model 60 components.

It can be seen that the packaging cost of inefficient polysilicon modules is higher than the cost of 60 cells. With the increase of the price of glass, aluminum and other materials, this phenomenon will become more and more obvious in the future!

To sum up: In the future, it is difficult to rely on the decline of battery price for the decline of component price, but mainly on the reduction of packaging cost of average single watt cost.

3. PV cost constitutes a historic turning point!

In 2010, the cost of a 60 type module battery accounted for 91%, while the packaging cost was only 9%. Since the cost of the battery accounted for a large proportion, the sharp tool for cost reduction was naturally to reduce the cost of the battery. Reducing the cost of the battery can effectively reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation.

In September 2018, the battery cost was lower than the cost of packaging for the first time in history!

At this moment, the development of the industry means that in the future, simply reducing the battery price will have very limited effect on reducing the component cost.

If the cost of the back-end power station construction link is taken into account, the current cost of the battery chip accounts for only 21%, the price of the polycrystalline battery is reduced to 0, and the cost of the photovoltaic power station system is nothing more than a 20% drop. There is still a huge distance from our ideal power generation side parity to the Internet. The only way to make photovoltaic cheap in the future is to improve efficiency.

To quote a friend of Aixu, all technological progress not aimed at improving efficiency is hooliganism.

2、 Evolution of PV module packaging technology

If you review the history of component packaging, you will find that for more than 30 years, components have been following the path of "wasting more battery chips but improving packaging efficiency"!

Stage 1: Silicon chip is more precious than gold

In the earliest days, the price of a single silicon chip was as high as 100 yuan, which was more precious than gold! Naturally, we are reluctant to waste a little. In the face of expensive silicon chips, the cost of materials used for packaging was negligible, so the packaging solution at that time was as follows:

Stage 2: Cut a little

With the optimization of silicon material and crystalline link, the cost of silicon cell chips continues to decline, and this large amount of blank and inefficient packaging mode is gradually abandoned. The round silicon wafer is properly cut and then packaged.

Stage 3: Saving area is more important

The wheel of progress cannot stop once it starts. The average price of silicon material and the cost of growing crystal are still sliding. Especially in recent years, the introduction of continuous feeding technology of growing crystal into the single crystal furnace has improved the rate of growing crystal, and the efficiency of slicing. This allows us to adopt a more "luxurious" packaging mode. As a result, M2, M4 and other silicon chips of single crystal silicon have emerged as the times require. The components they package are as follows:

In order to improve the packaging efficiency, a large proportion of silicon rods are cut in the process of square cutting to make the silicon wafer as square as possible and reduce the packaging white as much as possible.

Future: Leave nothing blank!

After reviewing the evolution history of component packaging technology, it is easier to understand the inevitability of the future of laminated tile technology. The technology of "wasting more cells but improving packaging efficiency" may be the best solution for the PV module link in the future.

In a 60 type version with the same size, the laminated module can pack 66~68 battery chips, an average of 13% more than the conventional module packaging mode. At this time, the high-efficiency battery chips become cheaper and cheaper, and the proportion of packaging cost is higher and higher. In this case, the laminated module technology that wastes battery chips and saves the cost of single watt packaging is becoming more cost-effective.

The cheaper the high-efficiency battery chip is, the more expensive the packaging mode of "wasting the battery chip and saving the area" will be. The technology of laminated tiles has been developed for many years, but it has not been applied in a large scale. I think the important reason is that the price of high-efficiency batteries was too expensive before 5.31.

The laminated tile technology is a typical technology to increase power proportionally. The power is increased by about 10%. The better the quality of the battery chip, the greater the gain.

In 2017, the power of the mainstream battery chip after packaging was 270W, and the gain after stacking tiles was 270 × 1.1=297W; Net increased power: 27W;

In 2019, a large number of battery chips with a power of 310W in the conventional packaging mode will be fully supplied, and the corresponding packaging power will be 310 after adopting the laminated tile technology × 1.1=341 W, net increased power 31 W.

It can be seen that the gain of the high-efficiency module is obviously better than that of the conventional battery chip. Therefore, a large amount of sufficient and cheap supply of higher power single crystal perc directly paves the way for the large-scale popularization of laminated tile technology. The figure below shows the price trend of PERC battery chip in the last year.

It can be seen that the PERC battery chip has fallen from 2.58 yuan/W per watt in 2017 to 1.08 yuan/W now. The quiet change in the price of high-efficiency battery chips is about to trigger a new revolution in component technology (of course, the premise is to solve the patent problem of laminated tiles)

3、 Technical status quo and application of laminated pads

1. The laminated tiles are the most promising technological innovation to take over from PERC

At present, PERC is the most widely used efficient technology. From the rise in 2017 to the maturity in 2018 to the outbreak in 2019, the perc component has basically completed a cycle, and is expected to decline from 2020. Which technology will take over from Perc technology?

According to the current technological development, the industry is generally optimistic about the "imbrication" technology! However, due to the inevitable course of new technology development, it is expected that the imbrication will usher in a real big development after 2020. Before that, "PERC+half piece" will become a transitional technology.

Half piece, multiple main grids and stacked tiles.

2. Production of laminated pad components

Many domestic component enterprises have introduced their own laminated tile components. The following table shows the laminated tile products exhibited by various enterprises at SNEC 2018.

In 2018, the shipment of laminated tiles was about 1GW, the largest market was China, and the mainland market accounted for half of the volume. The overseas market is mainly SUNPOWER and Orient Huansheng, and the rest of Cerafus also has.

In fact, there are many markets outside the mainland, but a large number of them will be in Asia. All efficient components will be settled in Australia when they are exported overseas, because Australia itself is a relatively open market, and the acceptance of this efficient component and new technology is relatively high. We can see that in fact, every manufacturer in Australia has shipped laminated tile components.

3. Export of China's laminated tile components in the first three quarters of 2018

In the following map, the application amount of different types of imbrication components in different regions of the world is distinguished by different colors.

The orange part is mainly the product of single crystal perc, and the gray part is the conventional polycrystalline.

From the shipment of laminated tiles in 2018, most of them are single crystal perc, and a small number are polycrystalline laminated tiles. From the perspective of size, the most important thing is that Orient Huansheng and Sunpower are 72 chip versions, while most other manufacturers are 60 chip versions.

The figure above shows an analysis of customs export data accumulated from the beginning of this year to September. Australia is the most important overseas market. From January to September, about 50 MW components were shipped.

In addition to Australia, there are Thailand, Japan, Singapore, etc., while Chile in Central and South America has a relatively large shipment of laminated tiles. There is an analysis of the wattage on the yellow circle chart on the way. At present, it seems that the wattage of the 72 panel version is basically 385W/390W/395W. The 60 panel version is dominated by 315W/320W, and some 310W.

The gray part is the part of polycrystalline laminated components, which occupies a small part. This year, the polycrystalline laminated components were shipped less. From January to September this year, there was basically no large shipment of N-type laminated components.

There are still technical difficulties to overcome for N-type HIT batteries to make laminated modules and cut batteries, so the actual shipment of N-type laminated modules this year and next year will be relatively small, but such products can still be seen on display at the exhibition.

4、 Conclusion

Component packaging, which is often the most despised industrial link with the lowest capital expenditure, is also a link where new technologies are emerging and equipment capacity is easy to be updated and eliminated.

In just a few years, the capacity of a component production line has evolved from 30MW~60MW~100MW to the latest 250MW MW; Packaging evolves from two main grids, three main grids, five main grids, six main grids, and even twelve main grids; A large number of new technologies are being or will be applied, such as triangular welding tape, round welding tape, half chip packaging, MWT packaging, reflective tape, reflective film, diamond packaging, etc.

However, compared with the tile stacking technology, the above technologies can only be regarded as a small thing!

To avoid the patent issue, if the laminated tile technology can be popularized in 2019 and the Se+perc high-efficiency battery chip is superimposed, the packaging power of the 60 version modules will generally reach 340~350W. Compared with the mainstream 270W components in 2017, the component power has improved by 80W in just two years!

Looking at technology iteration objectively, the rise of laminated tile market still needs some time to deliberate and grow. The shipment in 2018 is 1GW, and the expected shipment in 2019 is 3.5GW; Until 2020, laminated tiles will gradually become one of the mainstream products.

This is the best era. A series of new technologies are surging, and photovoltaic parity is coming with great strides; This is the worst era. Those enterprises that can't keep up with the trend of the times are being or will be eliminated.

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