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Don't be fooled by the popularity of electric vehicles nowadays, but in fact, it can only be said that there is loud thunder and little rain!

The sales are not as high as you imagine,

According to the data from 2017, the annual sales of electric vehicles in China were 448800 units,

The sales volume of passenger cars nationwide is 24.21 million, and electric vehicles are not even a fraction. Moreover, the sales of electric vehicles are mainly concentrated in first tier cities with restricted license plates and some second tier cities,

In the vast second, third, and fourth tier cities and rural areas, ordinary gasoline vehicles are still the absolute mainstay,

So, when will the era of electric vehicles finally come? First, let's talk about the bugs of two electric vehicles

One is the issue of battery life. Although electric vehicles with a range of over 300km are already common, and there are not many models with a range of over 400km, compared to gasoline vehicles that often have a range of 700-800 kilometers, they are still insufficient. Moreover, gasoline vehicles can be fully charged and resurrected in three minutes, and electric vehicles can only be fully charged in half in thirty minutes, requiring fast charging.

Another issue is the price. The price of electric vehicles is much higher than that of gasoline vehicles of the same model. Even with government subsidies, one can only buy a compact autonomous sedan for around 100000 yuan. At this price range, one can easily buy a good domestic SUV model. Although the maintenance cost of electric vehicles is low, the battery, which accounts for almost half of the car price, has a decay, and the car depreciates quickly, Electric vehicles that have been in use for four or five years are generally priced at a high price, while replacing them with electric vehicles is expensive and costly.

So, the core to solving these two bugs in electric vehicles lies in battery technology, which must significantly improve energy density and reduce manufacturing costs. In fact, this is the current national subsidy approach.

The higher the range, the higher the energy density, and the higher the subsidy. According to the latest subsidy rules in 2018, models with a battery energy density of 160Wh/kg or above will receive a subsidy of 1.2 times. According to the technical goals set in Made in China 2025, the energy density of lithium batteries will reach 300Wh/kg in 2020, 400Wh/kg in 2025, and 500Wh/kg in 2030. The existing technology of ternary lithium batteries has a ceiling, but unfortunately, the energy density of existing ternary lithium batteries is not infinitely improved. Although there are many companies investing in the research and development of lithium-ion batteries, it is generally believed that around 300Wh/kg may be the ceiling of ternary lithium-ion batteries.

So even if this ceiling can be reached, existing batteries are estimated to be unable to meet the growing demand for battery life.

What should we do? We must find new battery technology paths, which may belong to "solid-state lithium batteries" in the future. All solid-state lithium batteries have no gas or liquid in their structure, and all materials exist in solid form. Their high density, high safety and other performance make them more advantageous compared to traditional liquid batteries.

Toyota believes that solid-state batteries have better temperature resistance and do not require cooling, resulting in smaller sizes.

Compared to lithium-ion batteries of the same size, using solid-state battery technology is expected to increase battery density by about 50%.

In addition, another advantage of solid-state batteries is that they can reduce charging time by half.

Solid state batteries and lithium-ion batteries are built on the same technological foundation, so there is not much difference in the cost of raw materials between the two.

From this perspective, solid-state batteries are expected to increase the range of existing electric vehicles to 800-1000km, which can basically meet the needs of daily urban and intercity travel, and the charging speed is faster. It is expected that the manufacturing cost will also be significantly reduced. This is an absolutely ideal material. Japanese companies are fully researching and developing solid-state batteries, which is also a technology that almost the entire Japanese automotive industry wants to acquire. Japanese media reports, The Japan New Energy Industry Technology Development Agency recently announced that some companies and academic institutions in the country will jointly develop the next generation of electric vehicle solid-state lithium batteries within the next five years, striving to be applied in the new energy vehicle industry as soon as possible. The project is expected to have a total investment of 10 billion yen (approximately 580 million yuan). 23 automotive, battery, and material companies, including Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Panasonic, as well as 15 academic institutions such as Kyoto University and the Japan Institute of Physics and Chemistry, will jointly participate in the research. The plan is to fully master all solid-state battery related technologies by 2022.

The project plans to reduce the cost of battery packs to approximately 10000 yen/kWh (approximately $90/kWh) by around 2030, which is about one-third of the current cost of lithium-ion batteries. The research institution positions a fast charging technology that can charge for 10 minutes and restore one-third of its battery capacity.

Previously, Toyota had already stated that it would vigorously develop solid-state batteries to improve the range of electric vehicles, and in collaboration with Panasonic, the world's second ranked battery supplier, more than 200 engineers have been invested in researching this technology. It is expected to launch solid-state batteries in 2020.

The successful development of solid-state batteries has made fuel powered cars truly dangerous. If a car can reach a range of over 800km, charge quickly, and be priced similar to or not much more expensive than a gasoline powered car, such an electric vehicle can pose a fatal threat to gasoline powered cars!

Not only will it become popular in first and second tier cities, but it will also become popular in third and fourth tier cities that value practicality. Ultimately, in the next ten or twenty years, gasoline powered cars will gradually be marginalized and eventually become history. This will be a historic moment, and we will all be witnesses!

In the manufacturing of automotive power batteries, we are not far behind overseas. Recently, the world's largest power battery manufacturer, Ningde Times, has landed on the ChiNext board, becoming the largest market value on the ChiNext board. Ningde Times' batteries have received unanimous praise and praise from domestic and foreign car companies, including BMW, Mercedes Benz, Volkswagen, etc. Our own batteries have caught up with Japanese and Korean competitors, and in the development of solid-state batteries, Lao Liu believes that domestic enterprises will not fall behind. At least on this track, we have already reached the same starting line as Japanese enterprises, and it is easier to surpass them.

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