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At present, the investment of Samsung, LG, Panasonic and other battery giants in China is accelerating, the competition for the market will intensify, and the downstream market of batteries will face cold risks. According to the battery industry report, in the second half of 2016, China's battery output will balance in total, but the output of high-quality batteries will continue to be tight.

Lithium battery for power is rising crazily

According to the data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by 2015, China's power battery industry has ranked among the top three in the world. Zhang Xiangmu, Director of the Equipment Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, predicted at the 2016 forum of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred Talents Association on January 24 that the output of the single power battery in China in 2015 might be close to 40 billion watt hours. If it is estimated that 2 million new energy vehicles will be produced in 2020, the power battery products in China will meet the production supporting requirements of new energy vehicles in the next few years.

This figure is not fully recognized by the industry. Fang Jianhua, the director and general manager of Hefei Guoxuan High tech Power Energy Co., Ltd., believes that the production estimate of 40 billion watt hours in 2015 is too optimistic, because some commercial vehicles have only achieved 25% of the expected target. He predicted that the sales of power lithium batteries should remain at the level of 16 billion watt hours, but the sales of 3.67 GWh (megawatt hours, 1 billion watt hours) in 2014 have increased four times.

The power lithium battery industry, which seems to be booming, is currently showing a small, scattered and chaotic development situation, with serious blind investment and low-level repeated construction.

The quality stability of key products such as positive and negative pole materials and diaphragms in China is not high, the integration and control technology of battery management system is relatively weak, and the actual and effective output of the industry is not high. At the same time, China lacks leading companies with international competitiveness, and the technical advantages of important domestic manufacturing equipment companies are not obvious.

Zhang Xiangmu said that at this stage, China's battery industry should solve the problems of short supply of products, weak system integration and consistency assurance capability, and low stability of product quality as soon as possible.

At present, the investment of Samsung, LG, Panasonic and other battery giants in China is accelerating, the competition for the market will intensify, and the downstream market of batteries will face cold risks. According to the battery industry report, in the second half of 2016, China's battery output will balance in total, but the output of high-quality batteries will continue to be tight.

This prediction was recognized by Fang Jianhua. He believes that the power lithium battery industry will have structural overcapacity in 2016. The output of products that can be recognized by the vehicle company, recognized by the market, and whose cost performance can meet the market demand may not be sufficient; Those batteries that cannot meet the market demand may be overproduced.

Lithium Ternary Battery Rejected

In fact, the structural overcapacity of the battery industry is evolving into a technical route dispute.

Lithium batteries include lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, namely lithium nickel cobalt manganate, lithium carbonate, lithium nickel carbonate and other types. At present, the state encourages the common development of various technical routes. However, one of the phenomena in this way is that some unauthenticated ternary batteries and some overstocked batteries have also been loaded and applied, which has brought potential safety hazards to the operation of electric vehicles.

In 2015, there were many electric bus burning accidents in China. One of the reasons is that the number of buses and buses has a large number of batteries and the probability of accidents is high.

In this regard, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China made it clear at the 2016 Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Conference Forum that the ternary lithium battery passenger cars would be suspended from being included in the list of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. As soon as this news came out, it caused extensive controversy in the industry.

The reason of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is that the ternary lithium battery has high specific energy and good cycle performance, which is an important development direction of lithium battery in the future. However, China started late in this field, and it is not enough for the safety development and verification of buses. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is considering further improving the safety technical threshold of new energy vehicle products, and organizing the risk assessment of ternary lithium battery buses and other vehicles under the current safety standard system. Before the completion of the evaluation, the ternary lithium battery passenger cars will be suspended from being included in the list of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles.

Some insiders said they could understand this statement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Due to the short development cycle of passenger car models in China, new models are generally developed in a few months, which cannot follow the positive development process of international automobile industry. At the same time, the relevant standards of electric buses at home and abroad are relatively imperfect. There are indeed unsafe factors in this field, so we can see that the country is regulating the industry at present. On February 14, Yang Qi, marketing director of CATL New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as CATL), told reporters.

Yang Qi said that in the next five years, China's passenger car battery technology trend is turning to ternary materials. At this stage, especially in the field of passenger vehicles, only by further improving the battery energy density can we better meet the needs of users. In terms of technology, if the production and use specifications in China are established, ternary materials will have a brighter future in terms of material characteristics because of their higher energy density. However, cobalt is a scarce resource and the global production is very limited. I am afraid that cobalt will be in short supply from the second half of this year to the beginning of next year. The energy density of lithium iron phosphate is not so high, but the raw material reserves are abundant, which can support the large-scale production of electric vehicles. Therefore, I think there may be room for two routes to go together in the future.

Wang Binggang, an expert on electric vehicles under the 863 Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology, believes that whether electric buses can use ternary batteries cannot be generalized. The key is to improve battery safety standards and control. The energy density of the ternary battery is high, and it can drive 30 kilometers after 10 minutes of fast charging. However, there are many passengers in the electric bus, and once a safety accident occurs, the loss will be very large. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the safety of the electric bus.

Fang Jianhua believes that suspension does not mean exclusion. This practice meets the requirements of promoting pure electric vehicles in China. The safety performance of lithium iron phosphate can meet the safety requirements of the public sector. In terms of passenger vehicles, ternary materials are worth promoting. Therefore, while the industrialization of lithium iron phosphate, the company should also actively develop ternary lithium batteries.

Lian Xiaoqiang, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Jinlong Automobile Group Co., Ltd., believes that the stability of the ternary lithium battery is indeed inferior to that of the lithium phosphate battery, but the safety of the battery cannot be judged only by the battery materials. The safety of battery is determined by the control system, including the packaged system, and the tightness of production control. More attention should be paid to the guarantee of balanced production process.

The logic of our security design and verification is as follows, and the goal is to achieve security. What we are most afraid of is the battery thermal runaway, pressure relief, fire and explosion. In a sense, all batteries are dangerous goods, but they are also classified into Class A, Class B and Class C. Especially in places with many people, Class A dangerous goods are still far away. Zeng Yuqun, Chairman of CATL New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. said.

Difficulties in power lithium battery recycling to be solved

In addition to the technical route, battery recycling is another problem that currently plagues the development of power lithium batteries.

According to statistics, from 2009 to 2015, China has produced 497000 new energy vehicles, including 370000 in 2015. According to the 5-year service life of power lithium batteries, the first batch of power lithium batteries for new energy vehicles will be retired in the second half of 2016.

The recycling of batteries has attracted the attention of relevant departments. At the 2016 Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Meeting Forum, Wan Gang, Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, called for accelerating research on the recycling of power lithium batteries.

He stressed that the battery recycling system should be established as soon as possible, the industrial chain should be established, the policies, laws and regulations on the recycling of lithium battery for vehicle power should be formulated as soon as possible, and the supervision and supervision system should be established.

On January 5, 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine jointly released the Technical Policy for the Recycling of Electric Vehicle Battery (2015 Edition). This policy shows that in order to implement the extended producer responsibility system, electric vehicle production companies (including importers), power battery production companies (including importers) and cascade battery production companies should respectively assume the important responsibility for the recycling of power batteries used in their production, and ELVs recycling and dismantling companies should be responsible for the recycling of power batteries on ELVs.

However, the battery recycling technology is quite complex. For example, in the treatment of waste lithium batteries, pretreatment is required first, which includes discharge, disassembly, crushing and separation, smelting and other steps.

The reporter found that there were few electric vehicles that were put into the market and could operate completely before 2011. Because of the low cycle life of the early power lithium battery, the electric vehicle could hardly operate normally after driving for about one and a half years.

Batteries scrapped ahead of time due to life problems have no value for cascade utilization, and it is difficult to recycle such batteries. Yang Qi spoke frankly to reporters of the 21st Century Economic Report on February 14.

So the battery quality is critical. According to the background records, the electric buses on the road in 2011 using our batteries are expected to operate for 8-11 years. Therefore, the batteries retired after 5 years will still have residual value. Therefore, we will not destroy it into raw material level for recycling. The remaining energy can be used for energy storage. However, the energy storage market at home and abroad has not been scaled up, so we will continue to explore in this field. Yang Qi said.

In addition, the development of waste power lithium batteries lags behind the development of new energy vehicles. According to the battery life, the development of battery recycling companies will lag behind battery companies by 3 to 5 years. Often, the high cost and complex process of battery recycling and reuse of electric vehicles make some relevant companies do not intend to get involved.

Sun Yanxian, the general manager of Chaowei Chuangyuan Industrial Co., Ltd., said in an interview with reporters earlier that it is difficult to recycle power lithium batteries, and the cost of battery recycling is even higher than the cost of sales.

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