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Benefiting from the rapid advancement of the global automobile electrification process, the demand for lithium battery cathode materials has shown a rapid growth trend. Previously, an industry organization predicted that the global demand for power battery cathode materials would be about 280000 tons in 2020; By 2025, China's demand for power batteries alone will reach 310GWh, and the corresponding demand for negative electrode materials will reach 260000 tons, with a huge market space.

Accelerated production of graphite anode

POSCO said recently that the secondary battery market of electric vehicles is expected to grow from 194GWh in 2020 to 366GWh in 2023. Therefore, the demand for artificial graphite anode materials will also increase sharply, and it is necessary to expand the production capacity. Based on the output in 2023, POSCO plans to expand 105000 tons of natural graphite anode materials, 16000 tons of artificial graphite and 90000 tons of positive and negative electrode materials to increase the global market share.

According to South Korean media reports, POSCO decided to invest 217.7 billion won (about 180 million US dollars) to build a new artificial graphite anode material factory. The new material factory is located in the Blue Valley National Industrial Park in Puhang, South Korea, with an estimated annual output of 16000 tons, and can supply about 360000 50kWh electric vehicles. The construction of the plant started this year and is planned to be completed in 2023.

It is reported that the anode material is the main body of lithium storage during lithium battery charging, accounting for about 10% - 15% of the cost of lithium battery. At present, graphite materials are the mainstream of lithium battery anode materials, which can be divided into natural graphite and artificial graphite. Due to the characteristics of raw materials and processes, the internal structure of artificial graphite anode materials is more stable than that of natural graphite products. In addition, it has a long service life and is conducive to rapid charging. Globally, Japanese and Chinese enterprises have always dominated the market of artificial graphite anode materials.

Since this year, Chinese material enterprises have also made constant efforts. At the end of March, Putai planned to build a "graphitization project with an annual output of 50000 tons of lithium-ion battery cathode materials" in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, with a total investment of 1.281 billion yuan and a construction period of two years. Putai said that the project will achieve full coverage of the company's cathode material processing and production processes, production integration, reduce production costs and improve product competitiveness.

Before that, Zhongke Electric said that the company initially expected to form a production capacity of 40-50000 tons of cathode materials by the end of 2020. At the same time, at present, the company has built a graphitization capacity of 10000 tons in Guizhou Grete, and is building a new graphitization capacity of 10000 tons, striving to be put into production in the first half of 2020. The construction of the main facilities of the new graphitization capacity of 10000 tons of energy gathering materials of the joint-stock company has been basically completed. In addition, the first phase of Hunan Chenyu Fuji New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.'s "20000 tons/year lithium-ion battery anode material project" was completed and put into operation at the beginning of this year.

According to the statistics of the Research Department of the Branch of Power Battery Application, the installed capacity of power battery of new energy vehicles in China was about 62.2 GWh in 2019, up 9.3% year on year. The growth of power battery market drives the increase of upstream material demand. In 2019, the domestic output of lithium battery anode materials is about 250000 tons, of which the market share of artificial graphite is estimated to be more than 75%. In the future, with the development of the industry, the market scale will also expand significantly.

From the perspective of market structure, Kaiyuan Securities Research Report pointed out that the concentration of domestic anode material industry is relatively high, presenting a competitive pattern of "three big and five small". The "three big" refer to Betray, Shanshan and Zichen Technology respectively, and the "five small" refer to Kaijin Energy, Zhengtuo Energy, Shenzhen Snow, Hunan Xingcheng and Xiangfenghua respectively. The market competition pattern of negative electrode materials will focus on the competition among leading enterprises. The low-end production capacity will be gradually cleared. Enterprises with core technology and advantageous customer channels will gain more market share, and the market concentration will be further improved.

Silicon carbon boosts the energy density greatly

With the development of lithium battery technology, the upgrading of anode materials is an inevitable trend, and the upgrading of graphite anode system to silicon-based anode system is the main direction. Among a variety of new anode materials, silicon has an ultra-high theoretical specific capacity (4200mAh/g, 10 times higher than traditional graphite materials) and a lower de-lithification potential. Moreover, due to its higher voltage platform than graphite, it is more difficult to cause surface lithium ion precipitation during charging, and the comprehensive safety performance of the battery is more excellent. It is the most practical choice to replace the carbon-based anode of lithium-ion batteries.

It is understood that the specific capacity of silicon carbon anode material can reach several times of that of natural graphite electrode and artificial graphite electrode, and its application in lithium battery will greatly increase the upper limit of energy density. This new material has been applied by Tesla, the global star of new energy vehicles. The power battery of its model 3 uses silicon carbon anode material.

At present, many domestic material enterprises are actively deploying silicon carbon anode. Betray, Shanshan, Jiangxi Zichen, Shenzhen Snow, Zhongke Electric, Jiangxi Zhengtuo, Chuangya Power and Dalian Lichang are actively promoting the industrialization of silicon carbon anode. Among them, the high-capacity silicon alloy anode material of Shanshan has been industrialized, which can meet the performance requirements of 300wh/kg for new energy passenger vehicles, and has been supplied to CATL.

In addition to CATL, domestic battery-related enterprises such as Lishen Battery, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, BYD, Bike Power, Wanxiang A123, and Weihong Power are speeding up the research and development and trial production of silicon carbon anode system. High-nickel ternary+silicon-carbon composites have been considered as the golden match. At present, the high nickel ternary cell developed by Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Lishen Battery adopts silicon carbon material as the negative electrode, and the energy density can reach 300Wh/kg.

It is not difficult to conclude that as the preparation process of silicon carbon anode and the technology mastered by battery manufacturers for high nickel system gradually mature, silicon carbon anode will usher in a broader market in the future.

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