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Technology introduction can win quickly, and independent research and development can accumulate and develop slowly. At present, the hydrogen fuel cell market in China is in the stage of market introduction where technology is the king. How can enterprises obtain core technologies that meet industrialization needs? Drawing on the experience of technology introduction in China's mobile phone, chip, home appliance, LED, and automotive industries, it is not difficult to find that "technology introduction" is a double-edged sword, and only those enterprises that can enter the global hydrogen fuel cell supply chain with core technology are likely to become the final winners.

Replacing fossil fuels with hydrogen energy is the belief of Japanese companies. Toyota, with nearly two decades of unwavering craftsmanship, successfully achieved mass production of the hydrogen fuel vehicle "Mirai" in 2015. The "Mirai" of the hydrogen battery era is comparable to the "Tesla" of the lithium battery era. The significance of mass production of "Mirai" lies in proving to the world the feasibility of large-scale commercial use of hydrogen fuel cell technology, which has sparked a wave of building a hydrogen society in various countries around the world. Since 2017, various hydrogen energy industrial parks in China have blossomed everywhere, similar to the early development of photovoltaic, wind power, and lithium battery industries. Driven by national policies, hydrogen fuel cells have become a new trend after lithium batteries. Unlike the lithium battery industry, hydrogen fuel cell technology has basically matured abroad (see "Opportunities and Challenges in China's Power Battery Marketization from the Perspective of CATL Growth"). Through "technology introduction" and "technology mergers and acquisitions", it provides opportunities for some capital without technology accumulation to switch tracks, layout the hydrogen fuel cell industry, and share the industry's explosive dividends.

1、 In the stage of market introduction, there is a significant technological dividend

The foreign hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry has entered the market introduction stage from the technology development stage. Public information shows that internationally advanced fuel cell engines have reached the level of traditional fuel vehicles in terms of power density, range, refueling time, fuel cell lifespan, and low-temperature environmental adaptability. Due to the late start in China, it is still in the stage of technological catch-up. To understand the current stage of industrial development, as shown in Table 1, the author conducted a comparative analysis based on nine aspects of the industry chain, including upstream and downstream, infrastructure, policy orientation, and talent flow. It was found that the current characteristics of the hydrogen fuel cell industry are similar to those of the lithium battery vehicle industry in 2010.

The development of the domestic hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry is in the late stage of technological development and the early stage of market introduction. Referring to the experience of lithium-ion battery industrialization, companies that have mastered mass production technology at this stage dominate the world, such as BYD in the lithium iron phosphate era and CATL in the ternary era. Their rapid rise is closely related to their possession of mass production technology during the market transition period.

2、 Domestic technical route status

Domestic companies introduce technology from three advanced hydrogen energy technology countries, namely Canada, the United States, and Germany. More than ten companies, including Guangdong Guohong, Weichai Power, Yihuatong, and Xueren, all come from well-known companies such as Ballard and Hydrogenics in Canada. BYD and Furuite have chosen to collaborate with German, British, and American companies. In addition to market factors, technology mergers and acquisitions are influenced by the company's overall strategy. The author speculates that BYD's cooperation with American manufacturers is related to its existing bus production base in the United States.

The core technologies of domestic independent research and development enterprises mostly come from university incubation. Dalian Institute of Chemical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Tongji University, and Wuhan Institute of Technology have achieved the most successful technological incubation. Among them, the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences is the first scientific research institution engaged in the research and development of hydrogen fuel cells and complete vehicles in China. It has cooperated with SAIC for a long time and successfully developed a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, which was displayed at the Shanghai World Expo and the 2008 Olympic Games. Dalian Institute of Chemical Engineering is considered the Huangpu Military Academy in the domestic hydrogen fuel cell and vehicle industries, providing a large number of professional talents for the industry. Another type of technology source is the return of overseas technical personnel for entrepreneurship, and the cross-border flow of overseas technical personnel has accelerated the speed of technology diffusion and import substitution of core components in the industry.

3、 Localization capability of hydrogen fuel cell core components

From the perspective of the domestic industrial chain layout, some leading enterprises currently have the basic ability to localize the core components of hydrogen fuel cells, but the product performance still needs to be improved. The specific analysis is as follows:

(1) There is a gap between domestic and foreign core technologies

The current research and development direction of the main components of hydrogen fuel cells is to improve performance. As shown in Table 4, several key indicators of domestic stacks, such as hydrogen storage pressure, stack life, stack power, and platinum dosage of catalysts, still do not meet the advanced level of foreign countries. In addition, based on the feedback information from the actual operation of hydrogen fuel cell buses, it can be seen that there is still a gap of more than 5 years between the performance of proton exchange membranes, catalysts, overall performance (including consistency, stability, durability), manufacturing costs, yield, and other key indicators compared to mainstream foreign manufacturers such as Toyota in Japan, Ballard in Canada, and DuPont in the United States.

(2) Some leading enterprises have entered the international supply chain.

On the one hand, compared to internal combustion engines, the technological gap of hydrogen fuel cells is smaller than that of internal combustion engines; On the other hand, the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry in the past decade has improved the overall research and development capabilities of the industry, shortening the cycle of technology introduction, absorption, and conversion. The improvement of the industrial environment, especially the flow of high-end talents, has provided the possibility for China's hydrogen fuel cell industry to achieve overtaking on curves in the future. As shown in Table 5, there are currently leading enterprises in China that have replaced domestic products and entered the international parts supply chain.

Among them, the fuel cell membrane electrode products independently developed by Wuhan Institute of Technology New Energy are sold in bulk to include the United States and Europe; The performance of the perfluorinated sulfonic acid proton exchange membrane produced by Dongyue Group has been recognized by Toyota in Japan, Fuma.tech in Germany, and the Mercedes Benz Ford Alliance (AFCC); The ultra-thin graphite bipolar plate developed by Shanghai Hongfeng greatly reduces the volume and weight of fuel cell stacks, and its products are exported to countries such as the United States, Canada, Italy, and South Korea.

How to evaluate the technology introduction plan of independent research and development enterprises based on their achievements?

(1) Technology introduction can shorten the production cycle of products

Guangdong Guohong has been introducing Ballard fuel cell stack production technology since 2015. In July 2017, the first fuel cell stack production line was put into operation, achieving the localization of fuel cell stacks in over a year. In contrast, New Source Power began independent research and development of hydrogen fuel cell stack technology in April 2001, which lasted for three years. It was not until September 2004 that the fuel cell engine economy system for the third-generation high-pressure operated sedan, which was independently developed, passed the acceptance test, with an output power of 47KW (data source: company official website) close to the international level. If the time from successful product development to mass production is included, this time interval will be longer.

(2) Relying solely on technology introduction is difficult to achieve independent innovation

Technology introduction is a double-edged sword. In the early stage of the industry, technology introduction has a positive market externality effect, that is, it is easier to achieve mass production and technology diffusion of hydrogen fuel cells by introducing foreign mature technologies. In the long run, technology introduction may be a "poison" that restricts the sustainable development of the industry. Looking back at the history of modern Chinese industrial development, from mobile phones, chips, home appliances, LEDs to automobiles, all have gone through detours in technology introduction or merger and acquisition. Taking China's automobile and high-speed rail industries as examples, this article reflects on the experience and lessons of "technology introduction and market exchange" in the history of China's industrial development.

(2) Relying solely on technology introduction is difficult to achieve independent innovation

Technology introduction is a double-edged sword. In the early stage of the industry, technology introduction has a positive market externality effect, that is, it is easier to achieve mass production and technology diffusion of hydrogen fuel cells by introducing foreign mature technologies. In the long run, technology introduction may be a "poison" that restricts the sustainable development of the industry. Looking back at the history of modern Chinese industrial development, from mobile phones, chips, home appliances, LEDs to automobiles, all have gone through detours in technology introduction or merger and acquisition. Taking China's automobile and high-speed rail industries as examples, this article reflects on the experience and lessons of "technology introduction and market exchange" in the history of China's industrial development.

(1) Failure cases.

China's automobile industry was the earliest to implement the technology for market joint venture industry policy. For more than 20 years, well-known domestic automobile enterprises, such as Beiqi and Yiqi, have not mastered advanced car manufacturing technology, and the competitiveness of domestic brand cars in the market is far lower than that of foreign and joint venture brands. There are two main reasons: firstly, there is no unified market in the domestic automotive industry, and enterprises in various regions have their own bargaining power when negotiating with foreign companies. They have been defeated by foreign companies one by one and have given up on the requirements for technology transfer; Secondly, the profits of joint ventures are considerable, and Chinese enterprises lack the motivation to absorb advanced foreign technologies for independent innovation. In the end, the technology introduction in the automotive industry fell into a vicious cycle of "introduction backwardness re introduction backwardness".

(2) Success stories.

Unlike the automotive industry, China's high-speed rail has successfully achieved the goal of technology introduction from initial technology introduction to independent innovation and reverse export. The main reason is that the domestic high-speed rail market is a monopolistic market with only one negotiated export, and has bargaining power in negotiations with foreign enterprises; At the same time, the country has expressed support and encouragement for independent innovation and domestic substitution behavior in policies, achieving the goal of using market capacity to absorb the cost of domestic technology updates and independent innovation, and cultivating the domestic industrial chain ecosystem, thereby achieving a virtuous cycle of technology introduction, absorption, and innovation.

(3) The latest case.

In April this year, the United States Department of Commerce's "ZTE Event" embargo incident deserves reflection on companies eager to implement the strategy of "technology introduction". In fact, during industry research, the author found that some domestic enterprises were motivated to introduce hydrogen fuel cell technology in order to obtain policy subsidies for rapid mass production, but at the same time, the enterprise lacked a research and development system for digesting technology and independent innovation. The potential risk is that these companies may be overtaken by latecomers in the market due to overcapacity and technological upgrading, falling into the "curse of technology mergers and acquisitions", making it difficult to achieve the heavy task of overtaking the Chinese automotive industry in the curve.

In summary, Hydrogen Cloud Chain believes that technology introduction is a double-edged sword.

There are similarities between the current hydrogen fuel cell industry and the development status of China's automotive industry. Experience has shown that simple technology introduction may face risks in technology mergers and acquisitions:

(1) Risk of introducing outdated technology

As shown in Table 8, the FCvelocity-9SSL system introduced by Guangdong Guohong from Ballard has a volume power density of only 1.5KW/L, which is far lower than the international mainstream level of 3KW/L, and even cannot reach the advanced domestic level of 2KW/L. The risk of introducing outdated technologies lies in the risk of system obsolescence and repurchasing if the investment costs cannot be recovered before the next generation technology iteration and independent technology transformation cannot be achieved without foreign technology frameworks.

(2) Risk of mismatch between technology and market

As shown in Figure 8, the minimum starting temperature of the Ballard system is only 2 ° C, which is not suitable for use in cold regions in the north. However, domestic manufacturers can provide a minimum starting temperature of -20C, which is more widely used.

(3) Subject to strict technological control, joint ventures may repeat the mistakes of the automotive industry, unable to obtain core technologies. After domestic independent technology catches up, joint ventures lose market competitiveness and can only continue to introduce, which is very passive.

(4) The introduction of complete sets of equipment faces difficulties in maintenance, domestic replacement of components, and difficulty in equipment iteration, laying hidden dangers for the increase in operating costs of enterprises in the future.

As competitors, Japanese and Korean companies still implement a technology closure strategy towards China's hydrogen fuel vehicle industry, while Canada, Germany, and the United States are relatively open to Chinese companies. Considering the weak awareness of technology M&A risks among domestic enterprises and the lack of experience in avoiding overseas technology M&A risks, the author is more optimistic about leading domestic independent research and development enterprises or dark horse enterprises with the ability to achieve independent innovation on the basis of technology introduction. The technology introduction of these naturally innovative leading enterprises and dark horse enterprises has a greater hope of realizing China's dream of becoming a strong country in the hydrogen fuel cell industry that overtook others in the curve.

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