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Pre statement: This article is not about technology popularization, we are discussing the essence of business. As for the viewpoint, it has already been mentioned in the title.

In 1980, Michael Porter, the recognized "father of competitive strategy" in the business management industry, proposed a concept: conversion cost.

It refers to the one-time cost incurred by users when switching from one product or service to another direction. The cost here not only includes money, but also time, manpower, and emotional relationships.

For example, special operations companies are generally unwilling to change aircraft suppliers. Switching from Boeing to Airbus requires retraining mechanics, crew members, and investing in a new set of spare parts. As the entire process progresses, conversion costs skyrocket, not only reducing profit margins, but also greatly prolonging the profit cycle.

If I tell you that real life is far more anxious than the examples in the story, can you accept it?

If you don't accept it, you have to accept it.

Recently, subsidies for fuel cells have been put back on the agenda. The contestants who had already been desperately "overtaking" on the pure electric route were a bit dazed for a moment.

The reason is simple: once you choose to switch tracks and restart the hydrogen fuel cell technology route, it means that the previous efforts on the pure electric route are basically useless.

This is not just about "conversion costs", but about double the impact of "conversion costs" and "sunk costs".

1. Two fatal flaws about FCV

In terms of who started hydrogen fuel cells earlier, Western countries are at least decades ahead of us. Hyundai, BMW, Mercedes Benz, Toyota, and Honda have all demonstrated their technological reserves.

The technical principles of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (hereinafter collectively referred to as FCVs) are not complex, and junior high school chemistry knowledge can understand: H2+1/2O2=H2O, summarized in four words: hydrogenation and drainage.

To clarify the advantages and disadvantages of FCV, we can compare hydrogen fuel cells with traditional fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Representative models are Toyota Mirai, BMW 3 Series, and Tesla Model 3.

Although not the first mass-produced FCV (even earlier than Hyundai's ix35FCV), the Toyota Mirai is definitely the most influential hydrogen fuel vehicle. Considering that Toyota has positioned the Mirai as a luxury Sedan, comparing it with the BMW 3 Series and Model 3 is not considered bullying.

In one sentence, the advantages of FCV are the usage habits of gasoline vehicles and the driving experience of pure electric vehicles.

The hydrogenation time of 3-5 minutes is basically similar to the refueling time of fuel vehicles, which is also the biggest advantage of FCVs compared to pure electric vehicles.

As for the drawbacks, FCV has two fatal flaws that cannot be avoided:

No.1 hydrogen refueling station is pitifully lacking

Although hydrogen refueling is fast, like refueling, it is necessary to go to a hydrogen refueling station to complete refueling. Want to build a hydrogen refueling station on the parking space in the community? Impossible, unless all "electrified society" is changed to "hydrogen society". Think about it, can you build a refueling station in your own parking space while driving a gasoline truck?

Compared to pure electric vehicles, although the popularity of public overcharging stations still needs to be improved, at least third parties such as Tetsu, Xingxing, and Anyue are still laying infrastructure. Currently, the operating hydrogen refueling stations in China can be counted with just one hand. Where can you go for hydrogen refueling?

No.2, the price is exorbitant

To operate the fuel reactor on an FCV, Pt platinum catalyst and proton exchange membrane are essential materials, and neither of these materials is cheap. Adding in the hydrogen storage devices on the vehicle, the cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has skyrocketed.

Hyundai's ix35FCV is priced at over 800000 RMB in South Korea, and Toyota has been developing FCVs for nearly 30 years. Should its cost control capabilities be excellent enough? But Mirai's selling price in California is still $53000, which is the price after the California government subsidized $5000.

Don't take the $35000 Model 3 as an example, the beggar version of Tesla hasn't built a few in total. But even the rear wheel drive long range version of the Model 3 is priced at only $49000 in the United States. As for the BMW 3 Series, the actual transaction price may be less than $35000.

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