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As the core of the new energy vehicle industry, the development trend of power batteries has become increasingly clear.

In 2018, the total installed capacity of power batteries was 56.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of nearly 51%. Ningde Times achieved 23.4GWh of installed electricity, with a market share of 41%.

BYD ranks second with an installed capacity of 11.43 GWh, accounting for 20.1%; The total installed capacity of the top three battery companies accounts for 66.67% of the total installed capacity. The total installed capacity of the top ten enterprises exceeds 47GWh, accounting for 82.87% of the installed capacity of power batteries.

In 2017, the installed capacity of Ningde Times accounted for 18.59%, while the total installed capacity of the top ten companies accounted for 82.86%.

Industry proportion exceeds 40%, looking at the ceiling of the power battery industry from the perspective of Ningde Times

It is not difficult to see that today, the concentration ratio of the power battery industry has increased again, and the leading effect of the industry has become more prominent.

And the most eye-catching of them is none other than the Ningde era.

This leading enterprise, which has been established for less than 8 years and has been officially listed for less than 1 year, has been riding the spring breeze of new energy vehicles and racing all the way. While we admire it, we cannot help but speculate:

Where is the ceiling of the Ningde era?

Does stock price not match strength?

2018 was a very important year for Ningde Times. Not only did it successfully go public, but there was also continuous positive news. The stock price went up from the initial offering price of 30.17 yuan, reaching a maximum of 95.16 yuan, which has tripled. It began to decline and closed at 79.10 yuan on April 25th.

Industry proportion exceeds 40%, looking at the ceiling of the power battery industry from the perspective of Ningde Times

Changes in stock prices after Ningde Times went public

But interestingly, after entering the Year of the Pig in the lunar calendar, despite the overall upward trend of the market, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 20.86% since February 1st, and the Dongcai Lithium Battery Concept sector has also risen by 32.43%. During the same period, Ningde Times, as an industry leader, saw only a 3.91% increase.

White Horse, a big consumer leader in other industries, such as Kweichow Moutai (38.10%) and Gree Electric (40.19%), outperformed the market, but the performance of Ningde Times was so unsatisfactory.

Is there any moisture in the leading position of this industry?

It shouldn't be. A market share of 40%, coupled with the continued trend of market differentiation, indicates that the leading position of Ningde Times in the industry will not be shaken.

Is there a risk to industry development expectations?

There is a certain possibility. If there are limitations to the overall future development of the industry, Ningde Era, as the industry leader, will definitely be the most affected.

We may as well try to explore it from an industry perspective.

Weak bargaining power

The power battery industry is not only in a trend of concentrated shipment volume and differentiated competitive landscape, but also facing pressure from overcapacity.

In 2018, China's power battery production capacity was 260GWh, but only 57GWh was sold, and nearly 4/5 of the production capacity was not released, with a capacity utilization rate of only 22%.

The goal of new energy vehicles in China is to achieve the production and sales target of 2 million new energy vehicles by 2020. Based on an average charge of 50 degrees Celsius (50KWh) for a new energy vehicle, the installed battery capacity in 2020 was only 100GWh.

A large number of batteries will face pressure to be produced but not sold.

Overcapacity means that as the upstream of the new energy vehicle industry, the battery industry will always be in a weak position, unable to exercise strong control over product prices.

With the intensification of competition in the new energy vehicle market, power batteries account for about 40% of the total vehicle cost. As downstream vehicle companies of power batteries, they may suppress the purchase price of batteries.

As an industry leader, Ningde Era is unable to rely on its own scale to influence the formation of price agreements within the industry due to its weak position in the industry chain and fierce competition within the industry.

Therefore, in the future, the price of power batteries is highly likely to be suppressed by strong downstream procurement, leading to a decrease in prices and a decline in the overall gross profit margin of the industry, as reflected in the 2018 financial report of Ningde Times.

Industry Space

In 2018, Ningde Times expanded the business of multiple car companies, including Daimler, Honda, BMW, GAC, Jiangling, SAIC General Motors, Geely, and others, to lock in sales in advance for its future production capacity, becoming the biggest guarantee of Ningde Times' future leading position.

Even if there is overcapacity in battery production and sales gross profit declines in a timely manner, as long as new energy vehicles continue to use power batteries as their power source, the biggest beneficiary in the industry will still be Ningde Times.

But as the market is concerned and concerned, recently, the concept of hydrogen fuel cells is gaining momentum and policy benefits are constantly improving. In the future, the market space for power batteries may be compressed by the hydrogen fuel cell market.

Is power battery just a transitional product in the market development process?

It is also some of these concerns and uncertainties that make Ningde Era, as a leader in the new energy industry, unable to achieve market performance similar to stable and positive stocks such as Maotai and Gree, despite having huge potential for new energy vehicle consumption in the future.

Undoubtedly, the power battery is still in the process of continuous progress, and its battery system still has some hidden dangers, which have been exacerbated by recent electric vehicle self ignition incidents.

But at least the development of power batteries has a direction and can be expected. The potential problems with hydrogen fuel cells will only be greater.

China's hydrogen fuel cells are still in the embryonic development stage. In the first quarter of 2019, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were only 278 and 273, and the cost of fuel cells is higher than that of lithium batteries. From the perspective of technology, price, and supporting facilities, fuel cells are very far from commercialization.

According to the latest statement from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, "we will further increase our efforts to solve the problems of industrialization and commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and vigorously promote the innovative development of China's hydrogen and fuel cell vehicle industries. In addition, we will further promote the high-quality and sustainable development of new energy vehicles by accelerating the construction of charging facilities and other measures

Officials also acknowledge that hydrogen fuel cells are still in a difficult stage of research. The uncertainty of whether to break through technical barriers in the future and when to achieve initial commercialization and industrialization is very high. Rechargeable batteries are still the mainstream direction today.

Therefore, in the foreseeable 5 years, Xiaoba believes that hydrogen energy fuel cells will be in the exploratory stage or small-scale application stage, and there will be no large-scale industrialization and commercialization implementation.

Moreover, local new energy vehicles have undergone several years of honing and cultivating a mature market model, and most well-known foreign car companies have only started launching new energy models this year.

A new energy power battery market that has entered a mature stage has begun to enter a stable growth stage. As a leader, Ningde Era will also maintain a higher market share in the medium to long term.

As for the long-term development ceiling in the future, it may also depend on the research and development progress and strength of Ningde Era in hydrogen fuel cells, and whether it can catch up with the speed of other competitors in the market in a timely manner.

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